4123 Tillie Cir #40 · Chattanooga, TN 37419

$222,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,127 sqft · Condo · 2 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $198/sqft · 21% below area Est $281k · 21% under $163/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wake up to fabulous Elder Mountain views and fall asleep to the quiet rhythm of mountain country living -- all from a brand-new, lock-and-leave townhome ready for you today. Nestled in Chattanooga's most scenic new address, Asbury Oak places you just minutes from Downtown while immersing you in the natural beauty of Lookout Valley. This thoughtfully designed three-story Bluffview plan features a first-floor flex/office, an open-concept second-floor living area with deck access perfect for soaking in those Elder Mountain sunsets, and two private en-suite bedroom suites on the top floor. Available in 3BD/3.5BA (1,463 sq ft) and 4BD/3.5BA (1,796 sq ft) configurations.

Key facts

• Deck access
• $163 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• LOCK-AND-LEAVE TOWNHOME
• FIRST-FLOOR FLEX OFFICE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• DECK ACCESS
• TURNKEY MOUNTAIN ESCAPE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $223k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Chattanooga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#3 in TN, #2,582 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lookout Valley Elementary (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #231 of 952 statewide, top 26%, 268 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #273 of 332 statewide, top 84%, 226 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,248 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,775
• List price: $222,900
• Delta: -20.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Asbury Oak Ln	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	10mo	$257,500	$228	90
4223 Tillie Cir	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	7mo	$243,670	$216	90
4183 Tillie Cir	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,127 (0%)	10mo	$257,700	$229	88
4135 Outpost Way	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-2%)	10mo	$308,500	$279	53
121 S Aster Ave	1.41mi	2/1.0	1,050 (-7%)	2mo	$235,000	$224	46
16 Kellys Ferry Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,264 (+12%)	7mo	$135,000	$107	45
10 Kellys Ferry Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,396 (+24%)	10mo	$215,000	$154	43
4535 Kellys Ferry Rd	0.98mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-6%)	8mo	$295,000	$279	41
128 Isbill Rd	1.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+15%)	6mo	$245,000	$188	28
3409 Harris Ln	1.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (+15%)	6mo	$330,000	$254	28
3417 Harris Ln	1.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (+15%)	6mo	$355,000	$273	28
3778 Kellys Ferry Rd	0.93mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+24%)	9mo	$320,000	$229	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-45,738
• Equity at exit: $33,235

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-51,852
• Equity at exit: $19,272

Cash invested: $62,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $245,000 ($257/sqft)
• Median days on market: 187 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37419

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,344/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,156

Max offer price $200,753

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-76	+0% $-153	+5% $-230	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-231	+0% $-153	+5% $-76	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-96	base $-153	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,725
• Closing costs: $6,687
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4158 Tillie Cir Chattanooga, TN	3.0	3.5	1463	$2,149	$1.47	109d	1	0.05mi
244 Asbury Oak Ln Chattanooga, TN	3.0	3.5	1463	$2,299	$1.57	109d	1	0.05mi
4162 Tillie Cir Chattanooga, TN	2.0	2.5	1127	$1,699	$1.51	109d	1	0.05mi
3830 Kellys Ferry Rd Chattanooga, TN	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,995	$1.51	109d	1	0.77mi
28 Lilac Ave Chattanooga, TN	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	119d	1	1.28mi
200 S Aster Ave Chattanooga, TN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	6d	1	1.39mi
3322 Parker Ln Unit A Chattanooga, TN	1.0	1.0	836	$950	$1.14	119d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail $163/mo · $1,956/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-25
   listed $222,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,486
• − Property taxes: −$3,344
• − Insurance: −$1,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$6,484
• Taxable loss: −$5,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,345
• After-tax cash flow: $-492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with its location, views, and modern design.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lookout Valley Elementary F TN #231/952 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 High Lookout Valley Middle / High School F TN #237/332 Nat'l #15,355/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Chattanooga

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #2582

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chattanooga, TN
• County: Marion · 393,784 people
• City population: 131,999
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 6,288
• Household income: $86,029
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.36%
• Current HPI: 258.6585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-25 Listed $222,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid