4767 Linden Rd

Alexander, NY 14054

$159,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Built 1847 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-295/mo
• Annual: $-3,537/yr
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.90%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (25.6% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $108k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#897 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alexander Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #364 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1847 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1847 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.