4767 Linden Rd · Alexander, NY 14054

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1847 0.66 ac lot $117/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 full bath house, on a beautiful 2/3 acre corner lot. Located in East Bethany, in the Alexander school district, this is a must see property. Featuring a huge back deck w/ a hot tub, and a 2 car attached garage. The lot has natural boundaries and is very well maintained. New well pump 8/22, freshly remodeled upstairs bedroom, and a Newly remodeled bathroom. Family has been using dining room as a play room/ bonus room. All offers are due by 09/26/22 @12pm. Delayed Negotiations until 09/26/22 @12pm. . Open house Sat 9/24 from 1-3pm

Key facts

• Flex living space
• First floor laundry
• Dining area

Tags

• ENCLOSED PORCH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• FLEX LIVING SPACE
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner, rectangular lot; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare; Lot size approximately 0.66 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-story property (listed as 1 story); Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone foundation; Shingle roof; PEX plumbing; Resale condition
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch; Fence (partial); Play structure; Gravel driveway; Propane tank (owned); Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total — two bedrooms on the second level and one bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heating present: oil-fired forced air and wall furnace
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Basement with partial finish, dirt floor area and sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer; Electric water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#897 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alexander Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #364 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1847 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $107,836 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1847 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.90%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,819
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -51.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,045
• Equity at exit: $63,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $11,250
• Equity at exit: $92,388

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14054

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,949/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,562

Max offer price $107,836

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1023-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $159,900 Active 1023-char remark
3. 2022-11-16
   soldstatus $160,000
4. 2022-11-14
   soldstatus $160,000 Closed Sale or Rented 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 full bath house, on a beautiful 2/3 acre corner lot. Located in East Bethany, in the Alexander school district, this is a must see property. Featuring a huge back deck w/ a hot tub, and a 2 car attached garage. The lot has natural boundaries and is very well maintained. New well pump 8/22, freshly remodeled upstairs bedroom, and a Newly remodeled bathroom. Family has been using dining room as a play room/ bonus room. All offers are due by 09/26/22 @12pm. Delayed Negotiations until 09/26/22 @12pm. . Open house Sat 9/24 from 1-3pm

5. 2022-09-27
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 full bath house, on a beautiful 2/3 acre corner lot. Located in East Bethany, in the Alexander school district, this is a must see property. Featuring a huge back deck w/ a hot tub, and a 2 car attached garage. The lot has natural boundaries and is very well maintained. New well pump 8/22, freshly remodeled upstairs bedroom, and a Newly remodeled bathroom. Family has been using dining room as a play room/ bonus room. All offers are due by 09/26/22 @12pm. Delayed Negotiations until 09/26/22 @12pm. . Open house Sat 9/24 from 1-3pm

6. 2022-09-19
   listed $179,900 Active 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 full bath house, on a beautiful 2/3 acre corner lot. Located in East Bethany, in the Alexander school district, this is a must see property. Featuring a huge back deck w/ a hot tub, and a 2 car attached garage. The lot has natural boundaries and is very well maintained. New well pump 8/22, freshly remodeled upstairs bedroom, and a Newly remodeled bathroom. Family has been using dining room as a play room/ bonus room. All offers are due by 09/26/22 @12pm. Delayed Negotiations until 09/26/22 @12pm. . Open house Sat 9/24 from 1-3pm

7. 2018-10-01
   soldstatus $85,000
8. 2017-11-06
   historical
9. 2017-10-13
   listed $105,000 Active
10. 2017-09-24
    historical
11. 2017-09-12
    price $107,000
12. 2017-05-26
    listed $112,500 Active
13. 2006-08-07
    soldstatus $77,080

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,949 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,949 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,949
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$6,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alexander Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602580
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $60,198
• Composite: 43.75/100
• National rank: #2946
• State rank: #364 of 590 in NY

Livability — Alexander

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #897
• US rank: #17429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,359

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,113 people
• By 2030: 54,140 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 49,368 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 43,911 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 32,511 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 21,695 · -61.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 33.0% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Current HPI: 263.8231
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+107.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-14 Sold (MLS) $160,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-09-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2022-09-19 Listed $179,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-10-13 Listed $105,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-09-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-09-12 Price Changed $107,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-05-26 Listed $112,500 WNYREIS
• 2006-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $77,080 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,949 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.