654 Broadway Unit 9W

Port Ewen, NY 12429

$199,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,070/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $331/mo
• Annual: $3,978/yr
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.11%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kingston City School District (urban): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert R Graves School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 316 students, 51% FRL); J Watson Bailey Middle School (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 968 students, 53% FRL); Kingston High School (math 94% / reading 91%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,856 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 45% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kingston City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $200k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.6% in Port Ewen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.