654 Broadway Unit 9W · Port Ewen, NY 12429

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1954 0.49 ac lot Est $195k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits! Two homes situated on one lot! This unique property is set on . 85 acres tucked back off the road, offering flexibility and multiple possibilities. The main cottage features two bedrooms and one full bath. As you enter, you are welcomed by an eat-in kitchen that flows into the living room and first bedroom. Off the kitchen is a second bedroom, along with a hallway leading to the washer and dryer area and full bathroom. The cottage was fully renovated in 2012, inside and out, including the roof. The mobile home on the property is currently in the process of being renovated but still requires finishing touches, including appliances, cabinets, heating, electric and completi

Key facts

• Two homes on one lot
• Set on .85 acres
• 0.49 acre lot

Tags

• TWO HOMES ON ONE LOT
• SET ON .85 ACRES
• FULLY RENOVATED IN 2012

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Clapboard construction
• Exterior features: Clapboard siding; Not waterfront; Additional parcel(s) included

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Updated/remodeled condition
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.6% in Port Ewen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kingston City School District (urban): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #355 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert R Graves School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 316 students, 51% FRL); J Watson Bailey Middle School (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 968 students, 53% FRL); Kingston High School (math 94% / reading 91%, grade A+, #153 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,856 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 45% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kingston City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $200k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.11%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,810
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
654 Broadway Unit 9W	0.00mi	2/1.0	770 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$253	100
654 Broadway	0.02mi	2/1.0	770 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$253	99
729 Broadway Unit 9W	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	874 (+14%)	16mo	$260,000	$297	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $45,177
• Equity at exit: $89,884

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $131,246
• Equity at exit: $138,521

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12429

• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,067/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $388	+0% $331	+5% $275	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $168	-5% $250	+0% $331	+5% $413	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $382	base $331	+0.5pp $280	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
557 Broadway Port Ewen, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	907	$2,070	$2.28	14d	13	0.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2015-10-01
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,722 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,067
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $3,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616290
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $52,586
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2849
• State rank: #355 of 590 in NY

Livability — Port Ewen

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #8190

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,981
• Population (ZIP): 168

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 15%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+207.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,067 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.