5146 Northridge Rd #309

Palmer Ranch, FL 34238

$114,900C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · Built 1999 · Condo · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,718/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$399
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $128/mo
• Annual: $1,533/yr
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $153 of equity ($794 loan paydown + $-641 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ashton Elementary School (math 89% / reading 87%, grade A+, #18 of 2,144 statewide, top 1%, 1,046 students, 28% FRL); Sarasota Middle School (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A+, #21 of 571 statewide, top 4%, 1,278 students, 26% FRL); Riverview High School (math 61% / reading 65%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,597 students, 35% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 63% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sarasota average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-8.2%/yr); 490 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $115k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.