5146 Northridge Rd #309 · Palmer Ranch, FL 34238

$114,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · Condo public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1999 $399/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +0.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

Key facts

• Gated pet friendly
• Walk in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• PRIVATE SCREENED BALCONY
• MOSAIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN CLOSET
• OUTDOOR STORAGE CLOSET
• GATED PET FRIENDLY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-8.2%/yr); 489 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $153 of equity ($794 loan paydown + $-641 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $115k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,945
• Equity at exit: $30,192

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,444
• Equity at exit: $33,849

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34238

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: -8.2%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,156/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$399
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,556

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $160	+0% $128	+5% $95	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $60	+0% $128	+5% $196	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $157	base $128	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $399 · $4,788/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

4. 2026-05-11
   status Active 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

5. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

6. 2026-05-08
   price $109,900 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

7. 2026-04-22
   price $129,900 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

8. 2026-04-15
   price $125,900 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

9. 2026-03-27
   price $129,900 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

10. 2026-03-20
    price $135,900 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

11. 2026-03-08
    price $139,900 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

12. 2026-02-26
    listed $142,900 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Under contract-accepting backup offers. Lowest-priced unit in Serenade. Cash opportunity. Seller paying assessment. Fast close possible. Great investor or seasonal property. Note: Seller is a licensed real estate broker in Florida.

13. 2011-07-28
    soldstatus $60,000 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    * * SHORT SALE * * BACK UPS BEING TAKEN. .. Large, Bright, Open and Airy, 1 Bed/1 bath condo with screened lanai on 3rd floor walk up with views of green preserves. Back of the building with Eastern exposures. Washer/dryer, dishwasher, ceiling fans. .. Community is gated with pool, spa, fitness, tennis and more. .. pet friendly. All buyers to be pre-qualified by Jeanine Thomas of J Thomas & Company - 941-366-BANK (2265). All offers contingent on Bank Approval.

14. 2011-03-08
    listed $69,000 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    * * SHORT SALE * * BACK UPS BEING TAKEN. .. Large, Bright, Open and Airy, 1 Bed/1 bath condo with screened lanai on 3rd floor walk up with views of green preserves. Back of the building with Eastern exposures. Washer/dryer, dishwasher, ceiling fans. .. Community is gated with pool, spa, fitness, tennis and more. .. pet friendly. All buyers to be pre-qualified by Jeanine Thomas of J Thomas & Company - 941-366-BANK (2265). All offers contingent on Bank Approval.

15. 2004-10-08
    soldstatus $30,175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,156 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,156 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$2,156
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − HOA: −$4,788
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $16
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4
• After-tax cash flow: $1,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmer Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmer Ranch, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 22,808
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,821
• Household income: $97,926
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 232.3872
• Rent YoY: ▼ -8.18%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $125,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $135,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $142,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-28 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-08 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $30,175,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,156 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.