7125 N Lagoon Dr Unit N

Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$210,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1986 · Condo · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$777
• HOA: −$530
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-931/mo
• Annual: $-11,168/yr
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.29%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-931 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $75k (64.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (64.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1312 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.6% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Dated cabinetry
• Minor: Kitchen appliances — Dated appliances
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Dated fixtures