7125 N Lagoon Dr Unit N · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$220,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Condo · 25 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This inviting GROUND FLOOR unit features a thoughtful split-bedroom layout with two spacious master suites, offering privacy and flexibility for owners, guests, or renters. The expansive open-concept living area flows beautifully, with large sliding doors that open to a private, courtyard-style side yard - an ideal sunny retreat for morning coffee, relaxing, or letting your pets enjoy some outdoor time. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a lucrative short-term rental opportunity, this unit delivers. The well-maintained complex offers a community pool, ample parking, and the relaxed atmosphere of a smaller, intimate community. Location is everything here. Just one block from

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Master suites
• Ground floor unit

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR UNIT
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• MASTER SUITES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• COMMUNITY POOL
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; Association barbecue amenity; Community pool; Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Dumpster available
• Utilities: Cable connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Entry on level 1
• Construction: Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Fenced yard; In-ground community pool; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level); Bedroom (second level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Covered porch
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-311/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,175 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-38,122
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-38,671
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $216,254

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7125 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$2,000	$1.60	21d	1	0.02mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	21d	1	0.23mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.28mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	21d	1	0.51mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	21d	1	0.54mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	0.55mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	21d	1	0.56mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	21d	1	0.59mi
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.73mi
2519 Beech St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,595	$1.33	21d	1	0.76mi
5931 Pinetree Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	21d	1	0.84mi
6219 Poinciana Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,350	$1.94	21d	1	0.88mi
5710 Sunset Ave Unit 1523314P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$8,246	$7.59	21d	1	1.06mi
5409 Hilltop Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	21d	1	1.29mi
8730 Thomas Dr Unit 1355041P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	839	$1,373	$1.64	21d	1	1.42mi
5230 Beach Dr Unit D Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	21d	1	1.43mi
5230 Beach Dr Unit A Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	21d	1	1.43mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.47mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-25
    price $220,000
19. 2026-05-25
    listed $200,000 Active
20. 2026-05-13
    historical
21. 2026-04-21
    price $225,000
22. 2026-04-21
    price $225,000
23. 2026-02-03
    price $229,000
24. 2026-02-03
    price $229,000
25. 2025-11-15
    price $235,000
26. 2025-11-14
    listed $235,000 Active
27. 2025-11-14
    listed $248,000 Active
28. 2023-03-31
    historical
29. 2023-03-31
    historical
30. 2023-03-13
    status Active
31. 2023-03-06
    status Active
32. 2023-03-06
    status Active
33. 2023-02-05
    status Pending
34. 2023-01-31
    status Active
35. 2023-01-28
    historical Active Under Contract
36. 2023-01-25
    status Pending
37. 2022-12-05
    status Pending
38. 2022-12-05
    status Pending
39. 2022-12-05
    historical
40. 2022-12-05
    historical Active Under Contract
41. 2022-11-15
    listed $224,900 Active
42. 2022-11-11
    listed $224,900 Active
43. 2022-11-11
    listed $224,900 Active
44. 2022-11-03
    historical
45. 2022-09-23
    price $218,900
46. 2022-08-30
    price $225,000
47. 2022-07-26
    listed $229,000 Active
48. 2021-12-14
    historical
49. 2021-12-10
    soldstatus $200,000
50. 2021-09-27
    listed $215,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$973
• After-tax cash flow: $662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This ground-floor condo unit is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed. It offers a split-bedroom layout and an open-concept living area with a private courtyard-style side yard. The well-maintained complex offers a community pool and ample parking, making it an ideal short-term rental opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated cabinetry
• Minor Kitchen appliances — Dated appliances
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathroom aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Dated cabinetry	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen appliances · Dated appliances	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets and appliances — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathroom aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+241.1% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $220,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-25 Listed $200,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $225,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $225,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $229,000 ECAR
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $229,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $235,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $248,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $235,000 ECAR
• 2023-03-31 Delisted — ECAR
• 2023-03-31 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-03-13 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2023-03-06 Relisted — ECAR
• 2023-03-06 Relisted — NAMLS
• 2023-02-05 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-01-31 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2023-01-28 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2022-12-05 Pending — NAMLS
• 2022-12-05 Pending — ECAR
• 2022-12-05 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2022-12-05 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2022-11-15 Listed $224,900 ECAR
• 2022-11-11 Listed $224,900 NAMLS
• 2022-11-11 Listed $224,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Delisted — ECAR
• 2022-09-23 Price Changed $218,900 ECAR
• 2022-08-30 Price Changed $225,000 ECAR
• 2022-07-26 Listed $229,000 ECAR
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-10 Sold (MLS) $200,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-09-27 Listed $215,000 CPARMLS
• 2011-06-29 Listed $64,500 CPARMLS