10961 Burnt Mill Rd #814

Jacksonville, FL 32256

$125,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,171 sqft · Built 2001 · Condo · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,776/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$474
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-777/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-777/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (9.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Twin Lakes Academy Elementary School (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 881 students, 50% FRL); Twin Lakes Academy Middle School (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 1,076 students, 44% FRL); Atlantic Coast High School (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 2,537 students, 35% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 521 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.