3025 Doe St

Willow River, MN 55795

$130,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 964 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $898/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-760/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-760/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (30.9% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $90k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#806 in MN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, health & safety D.
• Willow River Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #261 of 301 in MN (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $109k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.