3025 Doe St · Willow River, MN 55795

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 964 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1978 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Willow River. This property features several recent updates, including new flooring, fresh paint, added insulation, and a newer furnace. The home offers a detached garage and a spacious backyard! Conveniently located near state land and within walking distance to Willow River Area School District #577.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Fresh paint
• Newer furnace

Tags

• RECENT UPDATES
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• ADDED INSULATION
• NEWER FURNACE
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $168.42; Annual tax amount: $485.58 (tax year 2026); Tax with assessments: $654

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; Detached garage (1-car, approx. 14x20)
• Utilities: City water (connected) with sand point; City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service by Minnesota Power
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story
• Construction: Approximately 8 years old roof; 720 sq ft above-grade living area; 720 sq ft foundation area
• Exterior features: Deck; Light tree coverage; City street frontage with paved roads; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall-mounted cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Kitchen and dining combined
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-760/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#806 in MN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, health & safety D.
• Willow River Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #261 of 301 in MN (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $109k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $89,808 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $66,703
• Equity at exit: $117,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $199,477
• Equity at exit: $252,561

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55795

• Home prices YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $443/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $978

Max offer price $118,810

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 359-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $130,000 Active 359-char remark
3. 2019-07-15
   soldstatus $41,125
4. 2018-11-13
   historical
5. 2018-09-28
   listed $49,900 Active
6. 2018-05-07
   historical
7. 2017-11-22
   listed $50,000 Active
8. 2008-03-22
   soldstatus $50,000
9. 2005-06-28
   soldstatus $34,000
10. 2000-03-31
    soldstatus $28,500
11. 1998-12-16
    soldstatus $28,500
12. 1995-01-02
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $443 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$506/yr (+$42/mo · 114.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$443
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$862
• − Management: −$862
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$3,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$745
• After-tax cash flow: $-15/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willow River Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2742750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $42,510
• Composite: 29.14/100
• National rank: #6584
• State rank: #261 of 301 in MN

Livability — Willow River

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #806
• US rank: #20791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow River, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,876

Population outlook (Pine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,565 people
• By 2030: 26,567 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 23,878 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 20,931 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 15,372 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 11,032 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Portuguese 9% Italian 6%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.6% · R 66.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: R+0.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.82%
• Current HPI: 237.7192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+363.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $109,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $130,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $41,125 Public Records
• 2018-11-13 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-28 Listed $49,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-22 Listed $50,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records
• 1998-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records
• 1995-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $443 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.