446 Clear Rain St

Lavon, TX 75166

$267,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$155
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-278/mo
• Annual: $-3,338/yr
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $75,037

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Community ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 634 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.