446 Clear Rain St · Lavon, TX 75166

$267,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot $191/sqft · 15% below area Est $314k · 15% under $155/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New! Super cute single story, three bedrooms, two full baths! Home includes, eat-in kitchen, grannite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and so much more! Perfectly situated on FM 6, just half a mile from Highway 78, Elevon provides easy access to Farmersville, Rockwall, and neighboring towns. Enjoy the proximity to Lake Lavon, just 1-mile away, where you can indulge in camping, picnicking, and various outdoor activities. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make Elevon your new home. Contact us today to schedule a tour and discover the endless possibilities that await you.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features including enhanced attic insulation, insulated windows, efficient HVAC, efficient lighting, thermostat, and efficient construction/insulation
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with full use of facilities; HOA fee $155 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles (2-car single door)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Located in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Not attached to another unit; Subdivision: Elevon
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction (incomplete) — 2026
• Exterior features: Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Microwave; Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Level 1) with ensuite bath and walk-in closet; Bedroom (Level 1) — split bedroom layout; Bedroom (Level 1) — split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Pantry; Cable TV available; High speed internet available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Community ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 634 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,846 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,240
• List price: $267,990
• Delta: -14.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Epiphany Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+2%)	2mo	$259,990	$182	93
549 Epiphany Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+2%)	2mo	$268,990	$188	88
653 Glee Stem Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+9%)	2mo	$314,990	$205	75
822 Sunflower	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+5%)	0mo	$269,854	$183	69
529 Epiphany Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+14%)	2mo	$319,990	$199	67
1230 Bellflower Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-5%)	1mo	$272,990	$204	66
868 Sunflower Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+7%)	1mo	$282,990	$188	64
881 River Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+7%)	0mo	$282,990	$188	64
850 Sunflower Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+7%)	2mo	$279,990	$186	64
858 River Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+7%)	1mo	$282,990	$188	62
872 Sunflower Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-12%)	1mo	$267,990	$217	56
965 Dahlia Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	2mo	$259,990	$211	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-61,012
• Equity at exit: $39,958

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-75,416
• Equity at exit: $23,171

Cash invested: $75,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,020/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,541

Max offer price $227,745

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,998
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	12d	1	0.18mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	6d	1	0.23mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	43d	1	0.23mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	24d	1	0.25mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	43d	1	0.27mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	43d	1	0.28mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	43d	1	0.29mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	15d	1	0.31mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	7d	1	0.33mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	43d	1	0.34mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	15d	1	0.37mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	2d	1	0.39mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	43d	1	0.39mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	12d	1	0.39mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	7d	1	0.47mi
872 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1237	$2,000	$1.62	7d	1	0.51mi
858 River Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	16d	1	0.56mi
382 Armstrong Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,795	$1.37	20d	1	0.56mi
393 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,750	$1.38	18d	1	0.57mi
366 Armstrong Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,750	$1.38	24d	1	0.57mi
387 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,775	$1.30	16d	1	0.58mi
355 Armstrong Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,695	$1.34	24d	1	0.61mi
365 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,795	$1.32	2d	1	0.61mi
366 Schirra Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	0.62mi
345 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,685	$1.33	43d	1	0.65mi
332 Schirra Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,695	$1.41	20d	1	0.65mi
332 Schirra Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,695	$1.41	24d	1	0.65mi
341 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,795	$1.32	43d	1	0.66mi
339 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,795	$1.32	43d	1	0.66mi
315 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,750	$1.38	43d	1	0.71mi
305 Orbit Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,695	$1.34	43d	1	0.73mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	43d	1	0.90mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	20d	1	0.95mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	3d	1	0.98mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	43d	1	0.99mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	24d	1	1.27mi
200 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,918	$2.20	1d	5	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $267,990 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $267,990 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,990 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,990 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,990 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,990 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,990 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,990 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,990 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $277,990 655-char remark
16. 2026-05-11
    price $307,990 655-char remark
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $306,990 Active 655-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$4,020
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$7,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,912
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install new landscaping — Landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new landscaping — Landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $267,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $277,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $307,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $306,990 NTREIS