607 Mountain Ranch Rd #7

San Andreas, CA 95249

$29,950C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Built 2009 · Manufactured · Pending · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,155/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $639/mo
• Annual: $7,664/yr
• Cap rate: 34.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.90%
• DSCR: 5.49
• 1% rule: 3.86%
• Cash to close: $8,386

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $208 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $898 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,033 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Calaveras Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 34.5% vs local median 2.9% in San Andreas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen appliances — basic appliances
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — basic fixtures