607 Mountain Ranch Rd #7 · San Andreas, CA 95249

$29,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured · 210 Days on market

Built 2009 Average condition $73/sqft · 32% above area Est $23k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a Park Model Home (H & S 18009.3) This 2009 park model home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom in the welcoming town of San Andreas. The open living area is filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting space. Enjoy the peaceful setting of the community while still being close to local amenities, schools, and the scenic beauty of Calaveras County. Space rent is just $595, making this home a very affordable option.

Key facts

• Scenic beauty
• Natural light
• Open living area

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• SCENIC BEAUTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.5% vs local median 2.9% in San Andreas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,033 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Calaveras Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $208 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $898 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,356 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.90%
• DSCR: 5.49
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $22,611
• List price: $29,950
• Delta: 32.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 Mountain Ranch Rd #23	0.00mi	2/1.0	400 (-2%)	2mo	$18,000	$45	95
607 Mountain Ranch Rd #8	0.00mi	2/1.0	400 (-2%)	9mo	$22,950	$57	89
607 Mountain Ranch Rd #5	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	434 (+6%)	4mo	$32,000	$74	82
607 Mountain Ranch Rd #1	0.00mi	2/1.0	400 (-2%)	19mo	$32,000	$80	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $35,884
• Equity at exit: $4,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.00×
• Total profit: $83,865
• Equity at exit: $2,590

Cash invested: $8,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95249

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $346

Max offer price $29,950

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,488
• Closing costs: $898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $29,950 Pending 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,950 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,950 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,950 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,950 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,950 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,950 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,950 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,950 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,950 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,950 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,950 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,950 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,950 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,950 Active 192 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,678
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$947
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,108
• − Management: −$1,108
• − Depreciation: −$871
• Taxable income: $7,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,846
• After-tax cash flow: $5,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This park model home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen appliances — basic appliances
• Minor bathroom fixtures — basic fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — improves durability and aesthetics
• Both update kitchen appliances — enhances functionality and appeal
• Both update bathroom fixtures — enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · basic appliances	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · basic fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — improves durability and aesthetics ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — enhances functionality and appeal ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calaveras Unified
• NCES district ID: 0606870
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,559
• Composite: 20.06/100
• National rank: #8654
• State rank: #436 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Andreas

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1033
• US rank: #25053

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Andreas, CA
• Population (ZIP): 4,696

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.12%
• Current HPI: 196.6959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B