49 Laguna Seca Ct

St. Helena, CA 94574

$179,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 313 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,406/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$925
• Net cashflow: $2,364/mo
• Annual: $28,372/yr
• Cap rate: 22.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.20%
• DSCR: 3.59
• 1% rule: 2.46%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $179k).
• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Saint Helena Unified (town): math 50% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #231 of 1,400 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Saint Helena Elementary (241 students, 36% FRL); Robert Louis Stevenson Intermediate (246 students, 36% FRL); Saint Helena High (math 32% / reading 82%, grade C, #234 of 1,170 statewide, top 21%, 443 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 1.7% in St. Helena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($139k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.