49 Laguna Seca Ct · St. Helena, CA 94574

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 313 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $215k · 17% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located ~1 mile outside of downtown St. Helena, lies the Redwood tree laden enclave of Vineyard Valley. The 55+ community, bustles everyday, with friendly faces, headed to and fro the private pool, gym, library, or through a gate and past a vineyard directly into the historic downtown St. Helena. This home, a beautifully private 2 bed 2 bath comes equipped with refrigerator, natural gas oven, dishwasher, microwave and washer/dryer. The Venetian plaster style paint, stone countertop and tile backsplash in the kitchen reminisce of the Mediterranean all the while surrounded by the luxury of the California Wine Country.

Key facts

• Private pool
• Natural gas oven
• Historic downtown

Tags

• PRIVATE POOL
• NATURAL GAS OVEN
• STONE COUNTERTOP
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $1,345
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Park name: Vineyard Valley

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Guest parking available
• Security: Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Cable available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Natural gas connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Double wide
• Construction: Composition roof; Brick skirt; Manufactured by Silvercrest (Silvercrest Inc.)
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Patio awning; Storage area; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven and range; Free-standing refrigerator; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with sunken tub and tile finishes
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric fireplace (one); Carbon monoxide detector and smoke detector; Stone counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 1.7% in St. Helena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Saint Helena Unified (town): math 50% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #231 of 1,400 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Saint Helena Elementary (241 students, 36% FRL); Robert Louis Stevenson Intermediate (246 students, 36% FRL); Saint Helena High (math 32% / reading 82%, grade C, #234 of 1,170 statewide, top 21%, 443 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($139k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.20%
• DSCR: 3.59
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,424
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Laguna Seca Ct	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,136 (-1%)	9mo	$185,000	$163	88
7 La Canada Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	11mo	$215,000	$187	86
10 Los Robles Ct	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	10mo	$382,750	$307	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $121,574
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $299,739
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94574

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,406 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $439/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$925
• Net cashflow: $2,364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,466	-5% $2,415	+0% $2,364	+5% $2,314	+10% $2,263
Rent	-10% $2,016	-5% $2,190	+0% $2,364	+5% $2,538	+10% $2,712
Rate	-1.0pp $2,455	-0.5pp $2,410	base $2,364	+0.5pp $2,318	+1.0pp $2,271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
829 Hunt Ave Unit C St Helena, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	15d	1	0.47mi
1082 Mariposa Ln Saint Helena, CA	3.0	2.0	1312	$4,350	$3.32	15d	1	0.51mi
1171 Edwards St Saint Helena, CA	2.0	1.0	943	$4,000	$4.24	22d	1	0.66mi
1095 Crinella Ct Apt 3 St Helena, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,200	$2.93	15d	1	0.79mi
1420 Oak Ave Saint Helena, CA	1.0	1.0	778	$3,250	$4.18	22d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $179,000 Active 313 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 311 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 310 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 309 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 307 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 304 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 302 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,000 Active 301 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 300 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 299 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 296 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 295 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 294 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 293 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 292 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 291 DOM
19. 2026-01-23
    price $179,000
20. 2025-10-01
    price $219,000
21. 2025-08-12
    listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $439 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$922/yr (+$77/mo · 210.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$439
• − Insurance: −$1,692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,230
• − Management: −$4,230
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $27,046
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,491
• After-tax cash flow: $21,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saint Helena Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637830
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,540
• Composite: 54.39/100
• National rank: #2913
• State rank: #231 of 1400 in CA

Livability — St. Helena

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Helena, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 7,457
• Household income: $139,474
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 383.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -711.97%
• Current HPI: 203.5761
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-21.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $179,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $219,000 BAREIS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $229,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $439 · -26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.