212 Windfall Trl

Santa Rita Ranch, TX 78642

$399,990D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,852 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$41
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-378/mo
• Annual: $-4,542/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $111,997

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-378 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (23.2% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wolf Ranch El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 848 students, 28% FRL); James Tippit Middle (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 628 students, 49% FRL); East View H S (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,075 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 21% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Liberty Hill ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1509 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.2% in Santa Rita Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.