212 Windfall Trl · Santa Rita Ranch, TX 78642

$399,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,852 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 5,401 sqft lot $140/sqft · 33% below area Est $598k · 33% under $41/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The open kitchen and family room provide the perfect gathering space for all occasions. Gray cabinets with marble-look white quartz countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and multi-tone taupe carpet in our Radiant package.

Key facts

• Covered patios
• Family room
• Walk-in showers

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• LARGE GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIOS
• WALK-IN SHOWERS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Goodwin Management; Quarterly HOA fee of $123 covering common area maintenance; Community features include a park and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage with front-facing door and automatic opener; Total of four parking spaces, two covered
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Fiber optic available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Two-story home; Northwest-facing; Under construction; Has a view
• Construction: Composition roof; Board and batten, cement/HardiPlank-type siding; Low VOC insulation and spray foam insulation; Built by Meritage Homes; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Rear porch; In-wall pest control system; Exterior lighting; Small trees in yard; Sprinklers front, rear, side and partial coverage; Fenced private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Granite and quartz counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Dining area; Microwave; Plumbed for ice maker; Stainless steel appliances; Vented exhaust fan; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Ceiling fan(s) in at least one main-level room
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Double vanity in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Accessible doors; Multiple living areas; Main level primary bedroom; Open floorplan; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Smart home features including smart thermostat; Double vanities
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas dryer hookup; Tankless gas water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-378 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.2% in Santa Rita Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wolf Ranch El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 848 students, 28% FRL); James Tippit Middle (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 628 students, 49% FRL); East View H S (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,075 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 21% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Liberty Hill ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1509 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $307,185 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $598,483
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -33.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Menlo Bnd	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,634 (-8%)	1mo	$469,000	$178	76
125 Arcilla Pass	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,865 (+0%)	0mo	$519,170	$181	73
249 Menlo Bnd	0.16mi	5/4.0	2,585 (-9%)	1mo	$514,900	$199	72
209 Menlo Bnd	0.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,500 (-12%)	1mo	$446,136	$178	70
209 Pacific Grove Cir	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,838 (-0%)	1mo	$629,990	$222	69
208 Locklin Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,858 (+0%)	2mo	$535,000	$187	68
121 Arcilla Pass	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,767 (-3%)	1mo	$544,990	$197	66
528 Palatino Bnd	0.61mi	5/4.0	2,888 (+1%)	2mo	$504,990	$175	64
160 Covered Bridge Trl	0.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,577 (-10%)	2mo	$474,990	$184	61
102 Fortuna Ct	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,561 (-10%)	1mo	$475,000	$185	56
1012 Carillon Ct	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,529 (-11%)	1mo	$589,900	$233	54
333 Blue Summit Bnd	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,426 (-15%)	2mo	$549,900	$227	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-97,852
• Equity at exit: $59,640

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-150,748
• Equity at exit: $34,584

Cash invested: $111,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1509
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,000/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,551

Max offer price $345,223

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-102	-5% $-240	+0% $-378	+5% $-517	+10% $-655
Rent	-10% $-621	-5% $-500	+0% $-378	+5% $-257	+10% $-136
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-277	base $-378	+0.5pp $-482	+1.0pp $-588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,998
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
296 Redonda Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2988	$2,905	$0.97	45d	1	0.62mi
312 Palatino Bnd Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	5.0	3650	$3,590	$0.98	5d	1	0.72mi
253 Rosetta Loop Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	5.0	3986	$3,950	$0.99	45d	1	0.78mi
183 Alicante Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,575	$1.07	45d	1	0.97mi
128 Free Stone Dr Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.0	2053	$2,195	$1.07	45d	1	0.97mi
209 Winding Hollow Ln Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.0	2342	$2,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.10mi
205 Riverhill Cv Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,075	$0.99	26d	1	1.14mi
105 Tucana St Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.5	2120	$2,100	$0.99	26d	1	1.27mi
120 Serpens St Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,299	$0.96	45d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,990 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,990 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,990 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,990 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,990 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,990 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,990 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,990 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $399,990 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $424,990 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,990 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $424,990 Active 858-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,000
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,949
• − Management: −$2,949
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$11,569
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,777
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Rita Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rita Ranch, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $389,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $389,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $399,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-27 Listed $424,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $424,990 Unlock MLS