15432 Bareback Dr

Jacksonville, FL 32234

$285,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,404/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$669
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-277/mo
• Annual: $-3,319/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.16%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (15.6% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Baldwin Middle-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 1,384 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.