15432 Bareback Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$285,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2015 8,712 sqft lot Est $319k · 11% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning two-story home is move-in ready! It's a 4BR/2.5BA home located in Winchester Ridge. It was built in 2015 and features granite countertops, s/s appliances, crown molding, tile floors, and custom window blinds. From the open concept kitchen, dining, and living room areas to the extended covered patio, there is plenty of room for the whole family to enjoy! Upstairs is the Master Suite and Bath, featuring a custom sliding barn door, with three additional bedrooms and a full bath. The laundry room is also conveniently located on the second floor. It's hard to list all the indoor and outdoor features of this stunning home. Schedule your tour today! **$3,600.00 towards Buyer's closing costs if under contract by 12-23-2019!**

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with an annual fee of $150; CDD fee applies ($1,319)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private sewer; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Entry level: 2; Faces northwest
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Electric water heater; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Baldwin Middle-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 1,384 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,144 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.16%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,660
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6118 Black Filly Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,330 (+3%)	15mo	$337,900	$145	76
15336 Spotted Stallion Trl	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+0%)	16mo	$285,000	$126	75
15330 Bareback Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,330 (+3%)	13mo	$299,000	$128	72
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,500 (+11%)	2mo	$384,990	$154	59
5797 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,201 (-3%)	1mo	$354,000	$161	58
5733 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,500 (+11%)	5mo	$389,990	$156	56
15439 Buckskin Jumper Dr	0.20mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,507 (+11%)	22mo	$305,000	$122	50
5709 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,500 (+11%)	2mo	$387,990	$155	48
6327 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,165 (-4%)	22mo	$304,990	$141	45
6279 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,507 (+11%)	2mo	$340,000	$136	44
6231 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,512 (+11%)	6mo	$262,201	$104	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-19,703
• Equity at exit: $89,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,223
• Equity at exit: $112,569

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$550 /mo · $6,597/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,755

Max offer price $236,144

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-115	-5% $-196	+0% $-277	+5% $-357	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-467	-5% $-372	+0% $-277	+5% $-182	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-204	base $-277	+0.5pp $-350	+1.0pp $-426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15246 Hidden Foal Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,900	$1.10	14d	1	0.37mi
6137 Black Stallion Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$1,955	$1.05	0d	1	0.39mi
15180 Bareback Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,999	$1.09	5d	1	0.43mi
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2494	$2,800	$1.12	6d	1	0.47mi
15729 Equine Gait Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,950	$1.18	0d	1	0.63mi
6092 Bucking Bronco Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,995	$1.12	9d	1	0.66mi
15647 Woodbury Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1863	$2,222	$1.19	0d	27	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $285,000 Active
16. 2026-03-04
    price $293,500
17. 2026-02-20
    price $295,000
18. 2026-02-18
    listed $299,999 Active
19. 2020-01-27
    soldstatus $240,000
20. 2020-01-22
    soldstatus $240,000 Sold 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    This stunning two-story home is move-in ready! It's a 4BR/2.5BA home located in Winchester Ridge. It was built in 2015 and features granite countertops, s/s appliances, crown molding, tile floors, and custom window blinds. From the open concept kitchen, dining, and living room areas to the extended covered patio, there is plenty of room for the whole family to enjoy! Upstairs is the Master Suite and Bath, featuring a custom sliding barn door, with three additional bedrooms and a full bath. The laundry room is also conveniently located on the second floor. It's hard to list all the indoor and outdoor features of this stunning home. Schedule your tour today! **$3,600.00 towards Buyer's closing costs if under contract by 12-23-2019!**

21. 2019-12-23
    status Pending 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    This stunning two-story home is move-in ready! It's a 4BR/2.5BA home located in Winchester Ridge. It was built in 2015 and features granite countertops, s/s appliances, crown molding, tile floors, and custom window blinds. From the open concept kitchen, dining, and living room areas to the extended covered patio, there is plenty of room for the whole family to enjoy! Upstairs is the Master Suite and Bath, featuring a custom sliding barn door, with three additional bedrooms and a full bath. The laundry room is also conveniently located on the second floor. It's hard to list all the indoor and outdoor features of this stunning home. Schedule your tour today! **$3,600.00 towards Buyer's closing costs if under contract by 12-23-2019!**

22. 2019-12-05
    listed $240,000 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    This stunning two-story home is move-in ready! It's a 4BR/2.5BA home located in Winchester Ridge. It was built in 2015 and features granite countertops, s/s appliances, crown molding, tile floors, and custom window blinds. From the open concept kitchen, dining, and living room areas to the extended covered patio, there is plenty of room for the whole family to enjoy! Upstairs is the Master Suite and Bath, featuring a custom sliding barn door, with three additional bedrooms and a full bath. The laundry room is also conveniently located on the second floor. It's hard to list all the indoor and outdoor features of this stunning home. Schedule your tour today! **$3,600.00 towards Buyer's closing costs if under contract by 12-23-2019!**

23. 2019-11-30
    historical
24. 2019-11-05
    price $240,000
25. 2019-10-25
    status Active
26. 2019-10-09
    historical Active - Contingent
27. 2019-10-01
    listed $245,000 Active
28. 2015-12-31
    soldstatus $202,920 Sold
29. 2015-09-18
    status Pending
30. 2015-08-24
    listed $209,990 Active
31. 2010-01-20
    soldstatus $3,187,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,597 · $550/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,597 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$6,597
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$8,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,967
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-91.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $285,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $293,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $299,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-22 Sold (MLS) $240,000 realMLS
• 2019-12-23 Pending — realMLS
• 2019-12-05 Listed $240,000 realMLS
• 2019-11-30 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2019-11-05 Price Changed $240,000 realMLS
• 2019-10-25 Relisted — realMLS
• 2019-10-09 Contingent — realMLS
• 2019-10-01 Listed $245,000 realMLS
• 2015-12-31 Sold (MLS) $202,920 realMLS
• 2015-09-18 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-08-24 Listed $209,990 realMLS
• 2010-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $3,187,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+33.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,597 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.