161 Sweetgum Rd

Hortense, GA 31543

$195,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 0 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-664/mo
• Annual: $-7,970/yr
• Cap rate: 2.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.60%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 0.44%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-664 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (49.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (55.6% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (55.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brantley County (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 174 in GA (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waynesville Primary School (math 67% / reading 37%, grade C-, #227 of 1,228 statewide, top 19%, 438 students, 71% FRL); Brantley County Middle School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #147 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 530 students, 71% FRL); Brantley County High School (math 33% / reading 27%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 902 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Brantley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brantley County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.