161 Sweetgum Rd · Hortense, GA 31543

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 0 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2024 1.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 161 Sweet Gum Rd in Hortense, Ga--Where quiet country living meets space and comfort. This 2024 mobile home features 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms and sits on 2 beautiful acres at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, offering privacy and room to breathe. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room, cozy den, and a versatile flex room-perfect for an office, playroom, or extra guest space. Step outside and enjoy your private pond and peaceful surrounding that make this property truly special. And for those who love the water, you are just 1 mile from Warner's Landing on the Satilla River. If you've been looking for a place to slow down, spread out, and enjoy country life-this one is calling

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Private pond
• Flex room

Tags

• PRIVATE POND
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• FLEX ROOM
• 1 MILE FROM WARNER'S LANDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1.56 acres; Public records used for living area
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No on-site parking listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: New construction; Manufactured single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Built in 2024; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (all on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; High ceilings; Separate shower; Soaking tub; Split bedroom plan; Walk-in closets; Bonus room; Den; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Mud room; Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-664 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (49.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (55.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (55.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brantley County (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 174 in GA (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waynesville Primary School (math 67% / reading 37%, grade C-, #227 of 1,228 statewide, top 19%, 438 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Brantley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Brantley County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,507 (55.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.60%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 18.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 River Ridge Loop	0.11mi	2/1.0	840	21mo	$60,000	$71	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $12,846
• Equity at exit: $121,346

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $71,246
• Equity at exit: $218,994

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31543

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 18.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $98,890

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-529	-5% $-597	+0% $-664	+5% $-732	+10% $-799
Rent	-10% $-733	-5% $-698	+0% $-664	+5% $-630	+10% $-596
Rate	-1.0pp $-566	-0.5pp $-615	base $-664	+0.5pp $-715	+1.0pp $-766

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $195,000 Under Contract 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active Under Contract 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active Under Contract 68 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active Under Contract 67 DOM
6. 2026-04-14
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-03-11
   listed $195,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$830
• − Management: −$830
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$11,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,826
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brantley County
• NCES district ID: 1300480
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,053
• Composite: 37.85/100
• National rank: #4328
• State rank: #26 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hortense

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,914

Population outlook (Brantley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,422 people
• By 2030: 18,220 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 17,441 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 16,044 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 11,707 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 7,006 · -62.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Brantley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+82.5) · D 8.7% · R 91.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -63.1pp · 2024: -82.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+82.5 2020: R+81.2 2016: R+78.6 2012: R+67.0 2008: R+63.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.90%
• Current HPI: 167.0028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $195,000 GAMLS