2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,288 sqft ·
Built 2007
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 72 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,366/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$745
Tax + insurance
−$183
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$497
Net cashflow
$941/mo
Annual
$11,296/yr
Cap rate
14.25%
Cash-on-cash
28.41%
DSCR
2.26
1% rule
1.67%
Cash to close
$39,760
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $941 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $133k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $39k; list at $142k implies a 264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZYK24B5SJD6MP4
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29