31621 Green Meadow Ln

Warren, MI 48093 5590

$149,000C

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,472 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,649/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$249
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-383/yr
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-383/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (3.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Warren Consolidated Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #373 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cromie Elementary School (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,081 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 570 students, 74% FRL); Carter Middle School (math 15% / reading 40%, grade F, #363 of 493 statewide, top 75%, 684 students, 65% FRL); Cousino Senior High School (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #328 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 1,279 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 31d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 17 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.9% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.