8 Water St

Forestville, NY 14062

$69,900B+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,374 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,394/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $576/mo
• Annual: $6,912/yr
• Cap rate: 16.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.31%
• DSCR: 2.57
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#982 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Forestville Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #380 of 755 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Forestville Elementary School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,574 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 236 students, 46% FRL); Forestville Central High School (math 74% / reading 90%, grade A, #448 of 1,100 statewide, top 41%, 201 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $70k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.