8 Water St · Forestville, NY 14062

$69,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,374 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1900 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

More info coming soon. .. .

Key facts

• 0.69 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two total rental units with separate gas and electric meters (2 each); Unit rents listed at $425 and $600; Operating expenses include maintenance structure, maintenance, and water; Owner pays water; water is included in rent

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking with two or more spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Water connected and included in rent (owner pays water); Septic tank sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story multi-family property; Resale condition; Composite siding exterior
• Construction: Composite siding construction; Stone foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Covered and open porch; Patio/porch; Agricultural and greenbelt lot features; Irregular lot shape; Main thoroughfare road frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 171 x 176

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes an eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (each unit has 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies by room
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom (2 full bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; some rooms vary; Dirt floor partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#982 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Forestville Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #380 of 755 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $70k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.31%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $52,440
• Equity at exit: $39,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.49×
• Total profit: $127,107
• Equity at exit: $67,273

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14062

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,556/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $665

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $596	+0% $576	+5% $556	+10% $536
Rent	-10% $466	-5% $521	+0% $576	+5% $631	+10% $686
Rate	-1.0pp $611	-0.5pp $594	base $576	+0.5pp $558	+1.0pp $539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-10
    listed $69,900 Active 27-char remark
18. 2010-05-28
    soldstatus $35,000
19. 2009-05-31
    listed $46,000
20. 2008-05-05
    listed $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,556
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,488
• After-tax cash flow: $5,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forestville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611250
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,335
• Composite: 47.99/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #380 of 755 in NY

Livability — Forestville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #982
• US rank: #19170

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forestville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,220

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Iranian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Current HPI: 322.5177
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+22.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS
• 2010-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2009-05-31 Listed $46,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-05-05 Listed $57,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,556 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.