Birmingham Plan

Miami Heights, OH 45002

$469,380D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,691 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 279 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,166/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,651
• Tax + insurance: −$842
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $-202/mo
• Annual: $-2,429/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $141,538

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $469k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $413k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#752 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Three Rivers Local (rural): math 58% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #256 of 656 in OH (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Three Rivers Elementary (math 65% / reading 52%, grade B-, #708 of 1,584 statewide, top 45%, 793 students, 35% FRL); Taylor Middle School (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B, #271 of 654 statewide, top 43%, 665 students, 40% FRL); Taylor High School (math 24% / reading 67%, grade D-, #463 of 781 statewide, top 59%, 644 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Miami Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,166/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.