473 Island Run

Spencer, WV 25276

$72,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $806/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax + insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $186/mo
• Annual: $2,227/yr
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.91%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $20,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($806 rent vs $73k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $71k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($504 loan paydown + $968 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#69 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Roane County Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 55 in WV (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Spencer Elementary School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #287 of 377 statewide, top 85%, 454 students, 0% FRL); Spencer Middle School (math 10% / reading 31%, grade F, #102 of 109 statewide, top 94%, 331 students, 0% FRL); Roane County High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #21 of 110 statewide, top 26%, 540 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roane County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.