473 Island Run · Spencer, WV 25276

$72,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2016 2.50 ac lot ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom 2 full bath home sitting on a nice 2.5 acre lot! Private wooded area. Freshly updated with new paint and new carpet. Seller may offer financing based on credit approval.

Key facts

• 2.5 acre lot
• Private wooded area
• 2.5 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED AREA
• 2.5 ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($806 rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#69 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Roane County Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 55 in WV (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Spencer Elementary School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #287 of 377 statewide, top 85%, 454 students, 0% FRL); Spencer Middle School (math 10% / reading 31%, grade F, #102 of 109 statewide, top 94%, 331 students, 0% FRL); Roane County High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #21 of 110 statewide, top 26%, 540 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($504 loan paydown + $968 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Roane County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,713 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.91%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $14,337
• Equity at exit: $26,137

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $42,777
• Equity at exit: $35,722

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25276

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $571

Max offer price $72,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $206	+0% $186	+5% $165	+10% $144
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $154	+0% $186	+5% $217	+10% $249
Rate	-1.0pp $222	-0.5pp $204	base $186	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-16
   listed $72,900 Active
3. 2026-01-26
   listed $74,500 Active
4. 2026-01-07
   status Active
5. 2025-12-03
   status Pending
6. 2025-11-03
   listed $69,900 Active
7. 2025-08-25
   status Pending
8. 2025-08-25
   status Pending
9. 2025-08-19
   price $69,900
10. 2025-08-19
    price
11. 2025-07-03
    price
12. 2025-07-03
    listed $87,900 Active
13. 2025-07-03
    listed Active
14. 2025-05-28
    price $89,900
15. 2025-04-29
    price $94,900
16. 2025-03-20
    price $99,900
17. 2025-03-03
    price $104,900
18. 2025-02-11
    price $109,900
19. 2025-01-02
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$774
• − Management: −$774
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable income: $1,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$262
• After-tax cash flow: $1,964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roane County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5401320
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,703
• Composite: 20.98/100
• National rank: #8468
• State rank: #47 of 55 in WV

Livability — Spencer

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #8422

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,355

Population outlook (Roane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,290 people
• By 2030: 12,565 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 11,119 · -16.3%
• By 2050: 9,894 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 7,698 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 6,110 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roane

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.1% · R 75.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.1pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+47.9 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Current HPI: 155.2136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-39.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — HBRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $72,900 HBRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $74,500 KVBOR
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — KVBOR
• 2025-12-03 Pending — KVBOR
• 2025-11-03 Listed $69,900 KVBOR
• 2025-08-25 Pending — KVBOR
• 2025-08-25 Pending — HBRMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $69,900 KVBOR
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed — HBRMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed — HBRMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $87,900 KVBOR
• 2025-07-03 Listed — HBRMLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $89,900 KVBOR
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $94,900 KVBOR
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $99,900 KVBOR
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $104,900 KVBOR
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $109,900 KVBOR
• 2025-01-02 Listed $119,900 KVBOR