153 Marriott

Graham, TX 76450

$130,000C+

15 bd · 10.0 ba · 1,743 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,532/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $379/mo
• Annual: $4,549/yr
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.50%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 15-bed/10.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#232 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Graham ISD (town): math 50% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #252 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Graham El (math 47% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,050 students, 64% FRL); Graham J H (math 48% / reading 39%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 538 students, 61% FRL); Graham H S (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 669 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Young County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Young County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.3% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant damage
• Major: roof — Signs of wear
• Major: flooring — Worn and uneven
• Major: interior walls — Peeling paint