614 Sycamore Cir

Danville, CA 94526

$699,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 1972 · Townhouse · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,923/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax + insurance: −$620
• HOA: −$645
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$824
• Net cashflow: $-1,832/mo
• Annual: $-21,979/yr
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.23%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $195,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $699k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $375k (46.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (43.9% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($689k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $375k (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in CA, #3,007 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John Baldwin Elementary (437 students, 2% FRL); Charlotte Wood Middle (878 students, 5% FRL); San Ramon Valley High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 1,981 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 79% district-wide (-54 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the San Ramon Valley Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $699k implies a 1010% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.