614 Sycamore Cir · Danville, CA 94526

$699,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Townhouse public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1972 912 sqft lot $594/sqft · 10% below area Est $779k · 10% under $645/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This thoughtfully updated 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse offers comfortable, low-maintenance living in a convenient Danville location. The home features a functional layout with bright living spaces, a one-car garage, an additional dedicated parking space, and a private patio, perfect for morning coffee or relaxed outdoor dining. Perfectly positioned, this home opens directly to the scenic Iron Horse Regional Trail, which provides a convenient path connecting local schools. John Baldwin Elementary School is just across the trail, Charlotte Wood Middle School is about one-third of a mile away, and the high school is less than two miles away, all accessible via the trail. Residents enjoy acces

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community amenities
• Tennis courts

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• IRON HORSE REGIONAL TRAIL
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of an association (Danville Woods) with clubhouse, greenbelt, community pool, and tennis courts; Monthly association fee (includes exterior maintenance); HOA transfer fee paid by seller

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; Covered parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential townhouse; End unit; Built in 1972
• Construction: Brick, stucco, and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / free-standing range; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Updated kitchen with solid-surface counters
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on upper level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower-over-tub and solid-surface finishes; One half bathroom on street/main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar and eat-in breakfast nook; Solid-surface counters; Pantry; Updated kitchen; Family room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with hookups only; Main-level laundry facility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $375k (46.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (43.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $375k (46.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in CA, #3,007 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John Baldwin Elementary (437 students, 2% FRL); Charlotte Wood Middle (878 students, 5% FRL); San Ramon Valley High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 1,981 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 79% district-wide (-54 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the San Ramon Valley Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($689k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $699k implies a 1010% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,444 (46.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.23%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $779,380
• List price: $699,000
• Delta: -10.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
175 Midland Way	0.16mi	2/1.5	1,115 (-5%)	6mo	$625,000	$561	77
149 Midland Way	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,114 (-5%)	10mo	$640,000	$575	73
433 Sycamore Cir	0.10mi	2/1.5	1,148 (-2%)	19mo	$729,000	$635	73
1081 San Ramon Valley Blvd	0.19mi	2/1.5	1,114 (-5%)	9mo	$600,000	$539	73
508 Sycamore Cir	0.10mi	2/1.5	1,148 (-2%)	20mo	$700,000	$610	72
208 Jewel Ter	0.32mi	2/2.5	1,284 (+9%)	13mo	$785,000	$611	57
218 Ashley Cir	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,283 (+9%)	1mo	$720,000	$561	54
652 Hartley Dr	0.62mi	2/2.5	1,283 (+9%)	1mo	$760,000	$592	53
242 Ashley Cir	0.64mi	2/2.5	1,283 (+9%)	4mo	$805,000	$627	50
1157 San Ramon Valley Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,301 (+11%)	21mo	$815,000	$626	43
239 Ashley Cir	0.66mi	2/2.5	1,283 (+9%)	12mo	$860,000	$670	42
250 Ashley Cir	0.64mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,283 (+9%)	11mo	$850,000	$663	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.67% appreciation · 5.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-103,502
• Equity at exit: $226,851

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-74,171
• Equity at exit: $292,560

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94526

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,950/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$645
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$824
• Net cashflow: $-1,832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,242

Max offer price $375,444

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,436	-5% $-1,634	+0% $-1,832	+5% $-2,029	+10% $-2,227
Rent	-10% $-2,142	-5% $-1,987	+0% $-1,832	+5% $-1,677	+10% $-1,522
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,480	-0.5pp $-1,654	base $-1,832	+0.5pp $-2,013	+1.0pp $-2,197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1065 San Ramon Valley Blvd Danville, CA	3.0	2.5	1301	$3,800	$2.92	5d	1	0.19mi
432 Everett Dr Unit B Danville, CA	1.0	2.0	1200	$3,300	$2.75	45d	1	0.36mi
235 Ashley Cir Danville, CA	2.0	2.5	1283	$3,950	$3.08	7d	1	0.65mi
57 Summer Hill Ct Danville, CA	3.0	3.0	1459	$4,800	$3.29	0d	1	0.97mi
1079 River Rock Ln Danville, CA	3.0	2.5	1492	$6,000	$4.02	7d	1	1.01mi
505 Mission Pl Danville, CA	3.0	2.0	1334	$3,700	$2.77	0d	1	1.09mi
111 W Prospect Ave #205 Danville, CA	1.0	1.5	1255	$4,595	$3.66	26d	1	1.13mi
218 Valley Creek Ln Danville, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$3,165	$3.17	1d	7	1.25mi
394 Ilo Ln #703 Danville, CA	2.0	1.5	1012	$3,100	$3.06	20d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $645 · $7,740/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $699,000 Active 1124-char remark
2. 1978-01-30
   soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,950 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,312 · $443/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,362/yr (+$114/mo · 34.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$3,950
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,766
• − Management: −$3,766
• − HOA: −$7,740
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$35,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Ramon Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635130
• Math proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $138,331
• Composite: 76.08/100
• National rank: #216
• State rank: #28 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #3007

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 59,639
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,584
• Household income: $225,097
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 440.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 16% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Current HPI: 338.4779
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.72%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1009.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $699,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1978-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,950 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.