6586 Knuth Ln

Watersmeet, MI 54540

$64,500B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,627 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Pending · 371 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,134/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$338
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $323/mo
• Annual: $3,881/yr
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.49%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $18,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $64k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• It's been on market 371 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($446 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#415 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Northland Pines School District (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #189 of 342 in WI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northland Pines Elementary-Land O' Lakes (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #783 of 1,041 statewide, top 79%, 55 students, 46% FRL); Northland Pines Middle (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #172 of 383 statewide, top 45%, 182 students, 46% FRL); Northland Pines High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #184 of 483 statewide, top 41%, 417 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 359 units permitted in Vilas County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Vilas County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 0.5% in Watersmeet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 371 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.