6586 Knuth Ln · Watersmeet, MI 54540

$64,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,627 sqft · Condo · 371 Days on market

Built 2006

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for a waterfront vacation spot in the Northwoods but can’t afford it? Well, here it is! Built in 2010, Pinestone Crossing consists of 3 condominium homes with 720’ of frontage on the 220-acre Landing Lake, located just 3 miles west of Land O Lakes. The 1/10 fractional ownership of the 3 bedroom, 2 bath, Bear’s Den log home offers you 5 weeks of usage throughout the year; a fixed week in July, a week in the spring, fall and winter and a rotating week. The property comes tastefully furnished in true Northwoods fashion and features a gas, fieldstone fireplace in the great room, a screened in porch, a large lakeside deck and your own storage unit. Additional amenities include walking trails, screened in gazebo, firepit, use of a pier, a pontoon boat, paddle boat, canoe, kayak and swim raft. The 26-acre common area is heavily wooded and surrounded by nature and wildlife. This property offers you the perfect opportunity to own a piece of the Northwoods at an affordable price

Key facts

• Firepit
• Screened gazebo
• Private storage unit

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• LAKESIDE DECK
• PRIVATE STORAGE UNIT
• WALKING TRAILS
• FIREPIT
• SCREENED GAZEBO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Common-interest condominium

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; 2 parking spaces; No garage
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electric service; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Condominium; One-and-a-half story; Frame construction with log siding
• Construction: Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lakefront property with waterfront access; Dock; Deck; Wooded setting; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (propane); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; High ceilings; Gas fireplace with gas log and gas starter; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 0.6% in Watersmeet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#415 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Northland Pines School District (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #189 of 342 in WI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northland Pines Elementary-Land O' Lakes (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #783 of 1,041 statewide, top 79%, 55 students, 46% FRL); Northland Pines Middle (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #172 of 383 statewide, top 45%, 182 students, 46% FRL); Northland Pines High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #184 of 483 statewide, top 41%, 417 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 359 units permitted in Vilas County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($446 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Vilas County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 371 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.

Recommended offer $56,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 371 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.49%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $45,916
• Equity at exit: $47,568

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.54×
• Total profit: $118,088
• Equity at exit: $93,087

Cash invested: $18,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54540

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$338
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,484/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $724

Max offer price $64,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $342	+0% $323	+5% $305	+10% $287
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $279	+0% $323	+5% $368	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $340	base $323	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,125
• Closing costs: $1,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watergas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-23
   soldstatus $64,500 Closed 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   Are you looking for a waterfront vacation spot in the Northwoods but can’t afford it? Well, here it is! Built in 2010, Pinestone Crossing consists of 3 condominium homes with 720’ of frontage on the 220-acre Landing Lake, located just 3 miles west of Land O Lakes. The 1/10 fractional ownership of the 3 bedroom, 2 bath, Bear’s Den log home offers you 5 weeks of usage throughout the year; a fixed week in July, a week in the spring, fall and winter and a rotating week. The property comes tastefully furnished in true Northwoods fashion and features a gas, fieldstone fireplace in the great room, a screened in porch, a large lakeside deck and your own storage unit. Additional amenities include walking trails, screened in gazebo, firepit, use of a pier, a pontoon boat, paddle boat, canoe, kayak and swim raft. The 26-acre common area is heavily wooded and surrounded by nature and wildlife. This property offers you the perfect opportunity to own a piece of the Northwoods at an affordable price

3. 2025-04-21
   listed $64,500 Active
4. 2025-04-09
   historical Active Under Contract 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   Are you looking for a waterfront vacation spot in the Northwoods but can’t afford it? Well, here it is! Built in 2010, Pinestone Crossing consists of 3 condominium homes with 720’ of frontage on the 220-acre Landing Lake, located just 3 miles west of Land O Lakes. The 1/10 fractional ownership of the 3 bedroom, 2 bath, Bear’s Den log home offers you 5 weeks of usage throughout the year; a fixed week in July, a week in the spring, fall and winter and a rotating week. The property comes tastefully furnished in true Northwoods fashion and features a gas, fieldstone fireplace in the great room, a screened in porch, a large lakeside deck and your own storage unit. Additional amenities include walking trails, screened in gazebo, firepit, use of a pier, a pontoon boat, paddle boat, canoe, kayak and swim raft. The 26-acre common area is heavily wooded and surrounded by nature and wildlife. This property offers you the perfect opportunity to own a piece of the Northwoods at an affordable price

5. 2024-10-28
   listed $64,500 Active 1017-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

   Are you looking for a waterfront vacation spot in the Northwoods but can’t afford it? Well, here it is! Built in 2010, Pinestone Crossing consists of 3 condominium homes with 720’ of frontage on the 220-acre Landing Lake, located just 3 miles west of Land O Lakes. The 1/10 fractional ownership of the 3 bedroom, 2 bath, Bear’s Den log home offers you 5 weeks of usage throughout the year; a fixed week in July, a week in the spring, fall and winter and a rotating week. The property comes tastefully furnished in true Northwoods fashion and features a gas, fieldstone fireplace in the great room, a screened in porch, a large lakeside deck and your own storage unit. Additional amenities include walking trails, screened in gazebo, firepit, use of a pier, a pontoon boat, paddle boat, canoe, kayak and swim raft. The 26-acre common area is heavily wooded and surrounded by nature and wildlife. This property offers you the perfect opportunity to own a piece of the Northwoods at an affordable price

6. 2021-04-30
   soldstatus $42,000
7. 2021-03-12
   soldstatus $43,500
8. 2021-02-19
   soldstatus $45,000
9. 2020-07-17
   soldstatus $30,000
10. 2016-09-22
    soldstatus $26,000
11. 2013-09-09
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,484 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,484 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,613
• − Property taxes: −$2,484
• − Insurance: −$322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,088
• − Management: −$1,088
• − Depreciation: −$1,876
• Taxable income: $3,131
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$751
• After-tax cash flow: $3,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northland Pines School District
• NCES district ID: 5503860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,251
• Composite: 32.84/100
• National rank: #5617
• State rank: #189 of 342 in WI

Livability — Watersmeet

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #11449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 985

Population outlook (Vilas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,499 people
• By 2030: 19,683 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 17,559 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 15,407 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 13,010 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 10,937 · -46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 8% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vilas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.0% · R 61.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.0pp toward R · 2008: -4.1pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+21.9 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.67%
• Current HPI: 200.899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+34.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — GNMLS
• 2025-05-23 Sold (MLS) $64,500 GNMLS
• 2025-04-21 Listed $64,500 GNMLS
• 2025-04-09 Contingent — GNMLS
• 2024-10-28 Listed $64,500 GNMLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records
• 2021-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2013-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,484 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.