5930 Ballast Dr · Wimauma, FL 33598

$327,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · Land · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 5,680 sqft lot $12/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. New construction home with 1715 square feet on one-story including 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open living area. Enjoy an open kitchen with Quartz countertops, Samsung stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and a spacious island, fully open to the dining café and gathering room. The living area, laundry room, and baths include luxury wood vinyl plank flooring, with stain-resistant carpet in the bedrooms. Your owner's suite is complete with a walk-in wardrobe and a private en-suite bath with dual vanities, a tiled shower, and a closeted toilet. Plus, enjoy a covered lanai, 2-car garage, custom-fit window blinds, architectural shingles, energy-efficient insul

Key facts

• 5,680 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $328k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-889/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Wimauma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#699 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $278,984 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-56,925
• Equity at exit: $58,521

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-79,110
• Equity at exit: $45,173

Cash invested: $91,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,790 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,918/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,884

Max offer price $317,182

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $39	+0% $-74	+5% $-187	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-184	+0% $-74	+5% $36	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $9	base $-74	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,975
• Closing costs: $9,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2467 White Ladyfish Rd Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,100	$1.40	25d	1	0.28mi
5771 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,650	$1.20	25d	1	0.60mi
5757 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,630	$1.20	11d	1	0.61mi
5615 Red Kite Dr Wimauma, FL	5.0	3.0	2112	$3,000	$1.42	3d	1	0.63mi
17224 Auburn Arch Loop Wimauma, FL	2.0–4.0	2.5	1517	$2,900	$1.91	18d	20	1.07mi
17247 Southern Haven Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,300	$1.39	18d	1	1.26mi
17042 Oval Rum Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,500	$1.65	18d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $327,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $327,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $327,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $327,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $327,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   listed $327,900
7. 2026-05-11
   historical
8. 2026-03-06
   soldstatus $315,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,367
• − Property taxes: −$4,918
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,678
• − Management: −$2,678
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$9,539
• Taxable loss: −$6,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,557
• After-tax cash flow: $668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wimauma

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #699
• US rank: #14659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wimauma, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 32,820
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $327,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $315,700 Public Records