3839 Golden Willow Ct · Houston, TX 77449

$275,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2002 7,697 sqft lot $84/sqft · 19% below area Est $341k · 19% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible Investor/ BUYER Opportunity AS-IS Sale! This property features a solid layout ready for renovation, making it ideal for a fix and flip or buy and hold rental. With the right updates, you can maximize resale value or generate strong long-term income. The home offers 5 spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets and 3.5 baths, including a first-floor bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Additional features include a formal dining room, private study or formal living area, and a large second-floor game room. The remaining 4 bedrooms, including the primary suite, are located upstairs. Enjoy a covered patio and a desirable cul-de-sac lot adjacent to a greenbelt. Key updates include a new roof (2024), AC and water heater (2023). Carpet was in bad shape to walk on, its been removed, providing a head start for new flooring. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and schools, ensuring strong appeal for both buyers and tenants

Key facts

• 7,697 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,326 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,768
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -19.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3839 Golden Willow Ct	0.00mi	5/3.5	3,270 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$84	99
3818 Alder Pass Ct	0.10mi	5/3.5	3,235 (-1%)	4mo	$250,000	$77	90
19522 Fernhaven Dr	0.45mi	5/3.5	3,172 (-3%)	1mo	$339,900	$107	74
3519 Brackenfern Rd	0.43mi	5/3.5	3,232 (-1%)	10mo	$325,000	$101	70
19407 Glen Landing Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,300 (+1%)	19mo	$350,000	$106	67
20018 Doherty Cir	0.62mi	5/3.5	3,273 (+0%)	10mo	$339,000	$104	63
3418 Paintedfern Pl	0.44mi	5/3.5	3,284 (+0%)	21mo	$349,000	$106	61
19527 Fernhaven Dr	0.46mi	5/3.5	3,048 (-7%)	8mo	$368,000	$121	61
20103 Baldwin Oaks St	0.53mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,079 (-6%)	3mo	$324,900	$106	54
3910 Tulip Glen Ct	0.63mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,126 (-4%)	9mo	$350,000	$112	47
4003 Tulip Glen Ct	0.66mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,601 (+10%)	20mo	$370,000	$103	30
20014 Elmsbury Ct	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,943 (-10%)	23mo	$365,000	$124	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-40,933
• Equity at exit: $62,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-57,990
• Equity at exit: $62,985

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,695 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$672 /mo · $8,058/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,879

Max offer price $249,326

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-67	+0% $-145	+5% $-223	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-252	+0% $-145	+5% $-39	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-75	base $-145	+0.5pp $-217	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19810 Hoppers Creek Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2400	$1,956	$0.81	22d	1	0.49mi
20722 Iron Timber Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2785	$2,600	$0.93	22d	1	0.99mi
4211 Fair Country Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2342	$2,275	$0.97	25d	1	1.04mi
4542 Medrano Trl Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2797	$3,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.14mi
4922 Kale Garden Ct Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	4605	$2,950	$0.64	44d	1	1.14mi
4938 Yearling Ridge Ct Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2660	$2,250	$0.85	44d	1	1.15mi
4206 Grand Sunnyview Ln Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	4029	$3,500	$0.87	44d	1	1.15mi
4535 Medrano Trl Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2657	$2,600	$0.98	44d	1	1.16mi
4903 Ibis Lake Ct Katy, TX	6.0	3.5	4283	$3,995	$0.93	25d	1	1.17mi
5039 Lamppost Hill Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2384	$1,896	$0.80	22d	1	1.27mi
4818 Twisting Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2516	$2,245	$0.89	21d	1	1.27mi
19034 Village Maple Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	3142	$2,525	$0.80	22d	1	1.39mi
20811 Trenton Valley Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2350	$2,200	$0.94	44d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Active 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Incredible Investor/ BUYER Opportunity AS-IS Sale! This property features a solid layout ready for renovation, making it ideal for a fix and flip or buy and hold rental. With the right updates, you can maximize resale value or generate strong long-term income. The home offers 5 spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets and 3.5 baths, including a first-floor bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Additional features include a formal dining room, private study or formal living area, and a large second-floor game room. The remaining 4 bedrooms, including the primary suite, are located upstairs. Enjoy a covered patio and a desirable cul-de-sac lot adjacent to a greenbelt. Key updates include a new roof (2024), AC and water heater (2023). Carpet was in bad shape to walk on, its been removed, providing a head start for new flooring. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and schools, ensuring strong appeal for both buyers and tenants

2. 2026-05-09
   historical Active Under Contract 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Incredible Investor/ BUYER Opportunity AS-IS Sale! This property features a solid layout ready for renovation, making it ideal for a fix and flip or buy and hold rental. With the right updates, you can maximize resale value or generate strong long-term income. The home offers 5 spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets and 3.5 baths, including a first-floor bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Additional features include a formal dining room, private study or formal living area, and a large second-floor game room. The remaining 4 bedrooms, including the primary suite, are located upstairs. Enjoy a covered patio and a desirable cul-de-sac lot adjacent to a greenbelt. Key updates include a new roof (2024), AC and water heater (2023). Carpet was in bad shape to walk on, its been removed, providing a head start for new flooring. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and schools, ensuring strong appeal for both buyers and tenants

3. 2026-05-01
   status Active 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Incredible Investor/ BUYER Opportunity AS-IS Sale! This property features a solid layout ready for renovation, making it ideal for a fix and flip or buy and hold rental. With the right updates, you can maximize resale value or generate strong long-term income. The home offers 5 spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets and 3.5 baths, including a first-floor bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Additional features include a formal dining room, private study or formal living area, and a large second-floor game room. The remaining 4 bedrooms, including the primary suite, are located upstairs. Enjoy a covered patio and a desirable cul-de-sac lot adjacent to a greenbelt. Key updates include a new roof (2024), AC and water heater (2023). Carpet was in bad shape to walk on, its been removed, providing a head start for new flooring. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and schools, ensuring strong appeal for both buyers and tenants

4. 2026-04-30
   historical Active Under Contract 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Incredible Investor/ BUYER Opportunity AS-IS Sale! This property features a solid layout ready for renovation, making it ideal for a fix and flip or buy and hold rental. With the right updates, you can maximize resale value or generate strong long-term income. The home offers 5 spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets and 3.5 baths, including a first-floor bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Additional features include a formal dining room, private study or formal living area, and a large second-floor game room. The remaining 4 bedrooms, including the primary suite, are located upstairs. Enjoy a covered patio and a desirable cul-de-sac lot adjacent to a greenbelt. Key updates include a new roof (2024), AC and water heater (2023). Carpet was in bad shape to walk on, its been removed, providing a head start for new flooring. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and schools, ensuring strong appeal for both buyers and tenants

5. 2026-04-22
   status Active 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Incredible Investor/ BUYER Opportunity AS-IS Sale! This property features a solid layout ready for renovation, making it ideal for a fix and flip or buy and hold rental. With the right updates, you can maximize resale value or generate strong long-term income. The home offers 5 spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets and 3.5 baths, including a first-floor bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Additional features include a formal dining room, private study or formal living area, and a large second-floor game room. The remaining 4 bedrooms, including the primary suite, are located upstairs. Enjoy a covered patio and a desirable cul-de-sac lot adjacent to a greenbelt. Key updates include a new roof (2024), AC and water heater (2023). Carpet was in bad shape to walk on, its been removed, providing a head start for new flooring. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and schools, ensuring strong appeal for both buyers and tenants

6. 2026-04-21
   historical Active Under Contract 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Incredible Investor/ BUYER Opportunity AS-IS Sale! This property features a solid layout ready for renovation, making it ideal for a fix and flip or buy and hold rental. With the right updates, you can maximize resale value or generate strong long-term income. The home offers 5 spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets and 3.5 baths, including a first-floor bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Additional features include a formal dining room, private study or formal living area, and a large second-floor game room. The remaining 4 bedrooms, including the primary suite, are located upstairs. Enjoy a covered patio and a desirable cul-de-sac lot adjacent to a greenbelt. Key updates include a new roof (2024), AC and water heater (2023). Carpet was in bad shape to walk on, its been removed, providing a head start for new flooring. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and schools, ensuring strong appeal for both buyers and tenants

7. 2026-04-11
   listed $275,000 Active 992-char remark

   Show marketing remark (992 chars)

   Incredible Investor/ BUYER Opportunity AS-IS Sale! This property features a solid layout ready for renovation, making it ideal for a fix and flip or buy and hold rental. With the right updates, you can maximize resale value or generate strong long-term income. The home offers 5 spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets and 3.5 baths, including a first-floor bedroom with a full bath, perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Additional features include a formal dining room, private study or formal living area, and a large second-floor game room. The remaining 4 bedrooms, including the primary suite, are located upstairs. Enjoy a covered patio and a desirable cul-de-sac lot adjacent to a greenbelt. Key updates include a new roof (2024), AC and water heater (2023). Carpet was in bad shape to walk on, its been removed, providing a head start for new flooring. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and schools, ensuring strong appeal for both buyers and tenants

8. 2008-10-04
   historical
9. 2008-07-20
   listed $120,000
10. 2007-02-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,058 · $672/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,058 · $672/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$8,058
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,587
• − Management: −$2,587
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,494
• After-tax cash flow: $-250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+129.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2008-10-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-07-20 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2007-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,058 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.