10648 Orbit Ter · Palmer Ranch, FL 34241

$274,459

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,187 sqft · Townhouse · 71 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $172/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. What's Special: No Rear Neighbors | Pond View | Close to Amenity | Convenient 1st Floor Living - New Construction - June Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Home Builder. Welcome to the Ivy at 10648 Orbit Terrace in The Towns at Skye Ranch! This thoughtfully designed townhome maximizes every inch of living space. Step inside to find the kitchen at the front of the home, complete with a spacious pantry, then move into the casual dining area and great room that opens to a welcoming outdoor patio. Upstairs, enjoy the private primary suite with a full bath, while the second floor also offers a convenient laundry area and a secondary bedroom with its

Key facts

• 1st floor living
• Pond view
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• POND VIEW
• 1ST FLOOR LIVING
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY AREA
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Home warranty included; Community allows golf carts; Community irrigation uses reclaimed water
• Financial info: Total monthly association fees shown as $172
• HOA & community: HOA: Towns at Skye Ranch Homeowners Association; Monthly HOA fee of $172 (includes pool, escrow reserves, maintenance of structure and grounds, and other services); Community amenities: pool, playground, park, basketball court, trails, sidewalks, dog park, community mailbox; Pets allowed with restrictions (breed and number limits); CDD present

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Fire hydrant nearby; Sprinkler recycled
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Under construction (projected completion July 31, 2026); Two levels; Builder model: Ivy; Builder: Taylor Morrison; Faces south; Located in a gated community
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Pond view; Paved road access; Storage; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Split-bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Sliding doors; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet; Inside utility; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $274k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $274k).
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Riverview High School (math 61% / reading 65%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,597 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,991 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.20%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-39,695
• Equity at exit: $40,923

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-49,735
• Equity at exit: $23,730

Cash invested: $76,849 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34241

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,439
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$343 /mo · $4,117/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$172
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,619

Max offer price $274,459

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,615
• Closing costs: $8,234
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $172 · $2,064/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,459 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,459 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,459 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,459 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,459 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,459 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,459 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,459 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,459 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $274,459 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $274,459 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $273,959 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $273,959 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $273,959 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,959 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $273,959
17. 2026-05-21
    status Active
18. 2026-02-24
    status Pending
19. 2026-01-12
    listed $274,759 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,374
• − Property taxes: −$4,117
• − Insurance: −$1,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,763
• − Management: −$2,763
• − HOA: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$7,984
• Taxable loss: −$1,898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$456
• After-tax cash flow: $2,917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction townhome is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes. It offers a great value with potential for further improvements to enhance curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Painting exterior trim — Improves curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Upgrading window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Improves curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Upgrading window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmer Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 22,808
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,408
• Household income: $116,412
• Rent vs Own: 11.1% rent · 88.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 69.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -363.72%
• Current HPI: 278.3404
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $273,959 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $274,759 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid