7961 Hurd Rd · Naubinway, MI 49762

$174,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 1975 1.50 ac lot $108/sqft · 18% below area Est $214k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom tri-level home sits on 1.5 scenic acres at the end of a dead-end street, with State land directly across the road and access to thousands of acres beyond. Outdoor recreation is right outside your door with ATV, motorcycle, and snowmobile trails nearby. Many deer are often seen walking through the back yard. Recent updates include a new roof and furnace (2022) and water heater (2023). The lower level features a magnificent fireplace. Conveniently located near a local gas station/convenience store and just a few miles from Garnet Lake Campground. Enjoy peaceful rural living between St. Ignace and Newberry and only 45 minutes from the Mackinac Bridge. Immediate occupancy available.

Key facts

• Scenic acres
• Outdoor recreation
• New furnace

Tags

• SCENIC ACRES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($320/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Engadine Consolidated Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #504 of 760 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Mackinac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $83 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Mackinac County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,089 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,486
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -18.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,734
• Equity at exit: $45,227

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $11,432
• Equity at exit: $50,106

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49762

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $511/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-09
   listed $174,900 Active 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   This 4-bedroom tri-level home sits on 1.5 scenic acres at the end of a dead-end street, with State land directly across the road and access to thousands of acres beyond. Outdoor recreation is right outside your door with ATV, motorcycle, and snowmobile trails nearby. Many deer are often seen walking through the back yard. Recent updates include a new roof and furnace (2022) and water heater (2023). The lower level features a magnificent fireplace. Conveniently located near a local gas station/convenience store and just a few miles from Garnet Lake Campground. Enjoy peaceful rural living between St. Ignace and Newberry and only 45 minutes from the Mackinac Bridge. Immediate occupancy available.

2. 2025-11-27
   price $184,000
3. 2025-09-11
   price $187,500
4. 2025-07-25
   listed $189,900 Active
5. 2024-09-06
   soldstatus $175,000 Closed
6. 2024-09-06
   soldstatus $175,000 Closed
7. 2024-08-03
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
8. 2024-07-26
   listed $179,900 Active
9. 2024-07-26
   listed $179,900 Active
10. 2022-11-10
    soldstatus $111,900
11. 2022-09-12
    listed $119,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $511 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,602 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,091/yr (+$91/mo · 213.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$511
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,755
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$661
• After-tax cash flow: $981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Engadine Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $39,019
• Composite: 29.93/100
• National rank: #11667
• State rank: #504 of 760 in MI

Livability — Naubinway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 620

Population outlook (Mackinac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,449 people
• By 2030: 10,075 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 9,220 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 8,595 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 7,996 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 7,434 · -28.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Native American 14% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 0% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Mackinac

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.0% · R 61.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -3.8pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+27.2 2012: R+12.2 2008: R+3.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.64%
• Current HPI: 128.9922
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+47.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $174,900 EUPBR
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $184,000 EUPBR
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $187,500 EUPBR
• 2025-07-25 Listed $189,900 EUPBR
• 2024-09-06 Sold (MLS) $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-06 Sold (MLS) $175,000 UPAR
• 2024-08-03 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-26 Listed $179,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-26 Listed $179,900 UPAR
• 2022-11-10 Sold (MLS) $111,900 EUPBR
• 2022-09-12 Listed $119,000 EUPBR

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $511 · -13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.