114 Chestnut Dr · Ocean Acres, NJ 08005

$89,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1980 435 sqft lot Est $146k · 39% under $931/mo HOA · 37% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Retirement at the Jersey Shore right here in Pinewood Estates. This double wide mobile home has a newer roof and a nice large pen floor plan. Offering 2 bedrooms and 1 & 1/2 baths, great storage space, enclosed 3 season room and a screened porch/deck. Large storage shed and backing to the woods give it a nice private feel. 'Forced hot air heating with propane, full appliance package included. Furnishings can stay as well. Enjoy the pool and clubhouse and activities the community offers. A short drive to regional shopping and beaches right here . Don't miss this one built in 1980 this unit has a newer roof and needs some TLC to make it a great home.

Key facts

• Pool and clubhouse
• Backs to the woods
• Screened porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED 3 SEASON ROOM
• SCREENED PORCH
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• BACKS TO THE WOODS
• POOL AND CLUBHOUSE
• COMMUNITY ACTIVITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease (monthly $931) with 99 years remaining; Ground rent exists (annual payment, 99 years remaining)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee includes front and rear lawn care, snow removal, trash, and water; Community amenities include a clubhouse and outdoor pool; Monthly HOA fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway; Driveway parking with 4 spaces (total garage and parking spaces: 4)
• Utilities: Well water; Community septic tank; Electric hot water; Municipal trash service
• Home design: Detached home; Located in a 55+ senior community; Property condition: Average
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Building not winterized; Above-grade structure
• Exterior features: Street lights; Backs to trees; Screened porch; Deck(s); Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminated flooring; Engineered wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Ceiling fans; Multi-unit cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Open floor plan with combined kitchen and living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.2% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.08%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,250
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 Brighton Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (0%)	2mo	$170,000	$136	80
7 Barbara Ln	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	5mo	$87,500	$73	71
117 Pinewood Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+4%)	20mo	$158,000	$122	64
3 Casey Ct	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	11mo	$233,900	$174	63
149 Brighton Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-12%)	3mo	$22,000	$20	59
11 Casey Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	3mo	$250,000	$179	55
1 Mary Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	19mo	$135,000	$117	53
6 Kimberly Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	20mo	$89,000	$66	49
51 Brighton Rd	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	21mo	$140,000	$104	41
6 Doris Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	21mo	$50,000	$36	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $12,874
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $48,238
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$931
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $931 · $11,172/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 658-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,398
• − Management: −$2,398
• − HOA: −$11,172
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,561
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,095
• After-tax cash flow: $3,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Ocean Acres

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #15187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 25,936
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-07-28 Listed $105,000 MOMLS