141 W 5th St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$129,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · Other · 11 Days on market

Built 1940 3,920 sqft lot $91/sqft · 104% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

FRESHLY REMODELED!!! This Home has 5 large bedrooms, 2 Full Bathrooms, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring throughout the home. Brand new appliances and granite countertops. Give Dennis a call or txt at 570-274-6409 to schedule your showing.

Key facts

• Brand new appliances
• Granite countertops
• 3,920 sq ft lot

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.09 acres (80 x 50); Zoned residential

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding, brick, and frame construction; Block, unfinished basement; Originally built (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Asphalt and rubber roofing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Storm door(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 12.4% in Mount Carmel — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $129k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.32%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,139
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 112.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $55,894
• Equity at exit: $83,649

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $151,099
• Equity at exit: $153,949

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $889/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,088

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $292	+0% $255	+5% $219	+10% $182
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $199	+0% $255	+5% $311	+10% $367
Rate	-1.0pp $320	-0.5pp $288	base $255	+0.5pp $222	+1.0pp $188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on marketlisting id $129,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 240 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 239 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 238 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 235 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 234 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    price $129,000 Active 233 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,000 Active 233 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $134,000 233-char remark
17. 2026-04-22
    price $139,000 233-char remark
18. 2026-04-02
    price $144,900 233-char remark
19. 2026-02-16
    price $152,000 233-char remark
20. 2025-11-14
    price $157,000 233-char remark
21. 2025-10-10
    listed $165,000 Active 233-char remark
22. 2025-06-04
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $889 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,464 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$574/yr (+$48/mo · 64.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$889
• − Insurance: −$1,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$251
• After-tax cash flow: $2,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+222.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $129,000 CSVBR
• 2026-06-01 Relisted — CSVBR
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $129,000 CSVBR
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $134,000 CSVBR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $139,000 CSVBR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $144,900 CSVBR
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $152,000 CSVBR
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $157,000 CSVBR
• 2025-10-10 Listed $165,000 CSVBR
• 2025-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $889 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.