101 5th St · Fairbury, NE 68352

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1900 0.33 ac lot Est $92k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location, within walking distance of downtown, and one block from city park and ball fields. Outside sitting area, two car detached plus newer lawn shed, and 2 metal lawn sheds. Home has hardwood floors, full basement for storage.

Key facts

• Newer lawn shed
• Two car detached
• Outside sitting area

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE OF DOWNTOWN
• ONE BLOCK FROM CITY PARK
• OUTSIDE SITTING AREA
• TWO CAR DETACHED
• NEWER LAWN SHED
• FULL BASEMENT FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.6% in Fairbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#125 in NE, #4,843 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fairbury Public Schools (town): math 39% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #101 of 111 in NE (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairbury Jr-Sr High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #176 of 261 statewide, top 68%, 377 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 39% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.17%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,854
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 5th St	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (0%)	1mo	$80,000	$71	94
902 A St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+1%)	5mo	$50,000	$44	77
928 Ash St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,168 (+3%)	6mo	$27,500	$24	64
1210 B St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+0%)	12mo	$119,000	$104	61
1112 D St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-5%)	1mo	$40,000	$37	61
920 4th St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-1%)	2mo	$180,000	$161	58
1027 F St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (+4%)	14mo	$130,000	$111	52
715 G St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-7%)	16mo	$175,000	$167	50
1104 E St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-3%)	14mo	$78,000	$71	50
823 8th St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+15%)	1mo	$104,900	$81	47
925 9th St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,204 (+6%)	14mo	$99,000	$82	46
724 G St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (-13%)	9mo	$68,000	$69	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,086
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $12,136
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68352

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $571/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $194	+0% $171	+5% $148	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $104	-5% $138	+0% $171	+5% $205	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $191	base $171	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1011 K St Unit STREET-301 Fairbury, NE	2.0	1.5	1088	$850	$0.78	45d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   listed $80,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$813/yr (+$68/mo · 142.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$571
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $1,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbury Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3170440
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,800
• Composite: 31.97/100
• National rank: #5842
• State rank: #101 of 111 in NE

Livability — Fairbury

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #4843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairbury, NE
• Population (ZIP): 4,897

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,961 people
• By 2030: 6,831 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 6,590 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 6,510 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 6,831 · -1.9%
• By 2100: 7,072 · +1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.7% · R 72.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.22%
• Current HPI: 229.7519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $80,000 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $571 · +12413.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.