4381 Broad Street Rd · Goochland, VA 23065

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 226 Days on market

Built 1988 2.01 ac lot $284/sqft · 20% below area Est $377k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful surroundings in a natural setting await you in great location only 20 minutes from Short Pump. Only minutes from the I-64 exit to Gum Spring, this property has income potential. For 7 years, we hosted guests from around the world through Airbnb as Gum Spring Getaway. This cozy home features an open floor plan, galley kitchen, covered front porch, deck, and patio. It has been owner occupied and maintained with new well pump, new holding tank, as well as new crawl space insulation and ground cover insulation. All copper pipes under the house have been replaced, as well as the roof and HVAC system. Upgrades have been completed in both bathrooms and there is new siding on the exterior. The property includes a large garden and plenty of room for enjoying nature and is very private. Located on a county line, it is close to Goochland Court House, in the Gum Spring area of Louisa County. This is a great opportunity for the right person.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open floor plan
• Income potential

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• INCOME POTENTIAL
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.6% in Goochland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#160 in VA, #4,994 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Louisa County Middle (math 59% / reading 76%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 1,152 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County High (math 86% / reading 92%, grade A+, #10 of 319 statewide, top 3%, 1,653 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 38% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $300k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,540 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.96%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,261
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -20.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-66,362
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-80,933
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23065

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,862/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,346

Max offer price $251,062

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-107	-5% $-192	+0% $-277	+5% $-362	+10% $-447
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-356	+0% $-277	+5% $-198	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-126	-0.5pp $-201	base $-277	+0.5pp $-355	+1.0pp $-434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2025-10-20
   listed $300,000 Active 951-char remark

   Show marketing remark (951 chars)

   Peaceful surroundings in a natural setting await you in great location only 20 minutes from Short Pump. Only minutes from the I-64 exit to Gum Spring, this property has income potential. For 7 years, we hosted guests from around the world through Airbnb as Gum Spring Getaway. This cozy home features an open floor plan, galley kitchen, covered front porch, deck, and patio. It has been owner occupied and maintained with new well pump, new holding tank, as well as new crawl space insulation and ground cover insulation. All copper pipes under the house have been replaced, as well as the roof and HVAC system. Upgrades have been completed in both bathrooms and there is new siding on the exterior. The property includes a large garden and plenty of room for enjoying nature and is very private. Located on a county line, it is close to Goochland Court House, in the Gum Spring area of Louisa County. This is a great opportunity for the right person.

6. 2007-04-03
   soldstatus $185,000 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   CUTE RANCHER 1 MILE FROM THE I64 GUM SPRING EXIT. .RENOVATED. .. BEAUTIFUL RANDOM WIDTH PINE FLOORING THROUGH OUT THE HOME. . BRICK FIRE PLACE WITH WOOD STOVE INSERT THE WILL CONVEY WITH THE SALE. .OVER LOOKING A PRETTY FARM. . VERY PRIVATE. .BUT SO CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE AND THE MALL!!!!!!!!!!!!! (THREE BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS)

7. 2007-04-03
   soldstatus $185,000

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   CUTE RANCHER 1 MILE FROM THE I64 GUM SPRING EXIT. .RENOVATED. .. BEAUTIFUL RANDOM WIDTH PINE FLOORING THROUGH OUT THE HOME. . BRICK FIRE PLACE WITH WOOD STOVE INSERT THE WILL CONVEY WITH THE SALE. .OVER LOOKING A PRETTY FARM. . VERY PRIVATE. .BUT SO CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE AND THE MALL!!!!!!!!!!!!! (THREE BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS)

8. 2007-02-26
   listed $185,000 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   CUTE RANCHER 1 MILE FROM THE I64 GUM SPRING EXIT. .RENOVATED. .. BEAUTIFUL RANDOM WIDTH PINE FLOORING THROUGH OUT THE HOME. . BRICK FIRE PLACE WITH WOOD STOVE INSERT THE WILL CONVEY WITH THE SALE. .OVER LOOKING A PRETTY FARM. . VERY PRIVATE. .BUT SO CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE AND THE MALL!!!!!!!!!!!!! (THREE BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS)

9. 2007-02-26
   listed $185,000

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   CUTE RANCHER 1 MILE FROM THE I64 GUM SPRING EXIT. .RENOVATED. .. BEAUTIFUL RANDOM WIDTH PINE FLOORING THROUGH OUT THE HOME. . BRICK FIRE PLACE WITH WOOD STOVE INSERT THE WILL CONVEY WITH THE SALE. .OVER LOOKING A PRETTY FARM. . VERY PRIVATE. .BUT SO CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE AND THE MALL!!!!!!!!!!!!! (THREE BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$598/yr (+$50/mo · 32.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,862
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Goochland

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,579

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 23% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.62%
• Current HPI: 196.6254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+62.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-20 Listed $300,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2007-04-03 Sold (MLS) $185,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-04-03 Sold (MLS) $185,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-02-26 Listed $185,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-02-26 Listed $185,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,862 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.