3408 Little John Dr · Montgomery, AL 36109

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1960 0.28 ac lot $93/sqft · 18% below area Est $134k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $110k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.64%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,925
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -17.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
238 Easthaven Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+0%)	5mo	$77,900	$66	74
3602 Little John Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,286 (+9%)	4mo	$65,000	$51	72
137 Oak Forest Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,183 (+0%)	0mo	$47,000	$40	66
508 Forest Hills Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+7%)	1mo	$55,500	$44	66
3405 Vermont Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,061 (-10%)	6mo	$88,000	$83	65
3700 Ramos Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	3mo	$134,400	$109	64
968 Karen Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,221 (+3%)	4mo	$92,000	$75	57
3831 Avondale Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-3%)	4mo	$151,000	$132	53
3346 Bedford Ln	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-4%)	6mo	$86,500	$76	53
13 Oak Forest Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (-6%)	2mo	$46,500	$42	49
963 Green Ridge Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-13%)	5mo	$104,000	$101	46
3 Kent St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+10%)	1mo	$102,750	$79	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,375
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $26,772
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36109

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $910

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3233 Hillcrest Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,395	$1.09	21d	1	0.20mi
3602 Little John Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.0	1286	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.22mi
3515 Cottonwood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1246	$1,350	$1.08	43d	1	0.27mi
3334 Cottonwood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,295	$1.26	13d	1	0.29mi
3329 Vermont Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1465	$1,395	$0.95	13d	1	0.30mi
239 Forest Hills Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.5	1500	$1,450	$0.97	21d	1	0.30mi
118 Nottingham Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,275	$0.95	43d	1	0.31mi
3319 Willow Lane Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,200	$1.16	43d	1	0.39mi
688 Joryne Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	43d	1	0.42mi
860 Greg Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,295	$0.93	13d	1	0.58mi
122 Oak Forest Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1092	$975	$0.89	21d	1	0.64mi
301 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	841	$935	$1.11	13d	1	0.66mi
311 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1104	$825	$0.75	43d	1	0.67mi
895 Greg Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,600	$1.07	13d	1	0.69mi
3456 Harrison Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	43d	1	0.71mi
67 Holliday Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,200	$1.04	43d	1	0.72mi
319 Olivia Ct Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	850	$700	$0.82	21d	1	0.73mi
103 Dalraida Rd Unit D Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	838	$875	$1.04	43d	1	0.73mi
3323 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,200	$1.06	21d	1	0.76mi
107 Dalraida Rd Unit A Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1237	$1,200	$0.97	43d	1	0.77mi
15 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,500	$1.10	21d	1	0.77mi
3346 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,295	$1.14	13d	1	0.77mi
7 Calhoun Rd Unit B Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	961	$850	$0.88	43d	1	0.80mi
1117 Karen Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,195	$0.91	43d	1	0.83mi
186 E Salem Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	21d	1	0.84mi
200 Eton Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1500	$895	$0.60	13d	1	0.85mi
3136 Harrison Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1355	$1,025	$0.76	43d	1	0.88mi
108 Calhoun Rd Unit 108B Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1350	$750	$0.56	43d	1	0.91mi
1154 Lakewood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,350	$1.27	43d	1	0.91mi
3318 Habersham Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,250	$1.10	13d	1	0.96mi
4046 Camellia Dr Unit 1 Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	43d	1	0.98mi
4023 Ware Hill Dr Unit 1507324P Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	1420	$4,076	$2.87	13d	1	1.07mi
750 S Marquette Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,195	$0.90	43d	1	1.08mi
1229 Karen Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1344	$1,590	$1.18	43d	1	1.10mi
610 S Georgetown Dr Unit 1386555P Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1474	$3,635	$2.47	13d	1	1.12mi
1216 Beechdale Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1495	$1,325	$0.89	43d	1	1.14mi
2229 Madison Ave Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$625	$0.57	43d	1	1.14mi
2310 Yancey Ave Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,250	$1.03	43d	1	1.15mi
2243 Winona Ave Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1492	$1,225	$0.82	21d	1	1.18mi
4041A Beth Manor Dr Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,000	$1.08	21d	20	1.18mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2025-12-03
    listed $110,000 Active
15. 2021-03-24
    soldstatus $55,000
16. 2016-06-27
    listed $58,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,247
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$539
• After-tax cash flow: $3,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,581
• Household income: $59,193
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1039.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.64%
• Current HPI: 149.3867
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+86.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Listed $110,000 MAAR
• 2021-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-27 Listed $58,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,154 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.