7896 Central Ave · Paw Paw Lake, MI 49038

$268,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · MultiFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1965 Average condition 0.34 ac lot Est $274k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to an exceptional chance to own a versatile duplex just steps away from beautiful Paw Paw Lake. Whether you're looking to expand your investment portfolio with a short-term rental, secure steady income with long-term tenants, or even live in one unit while renting the other, this property offers tremendous potential. The right-side unit has been freshly renovated and is move-in ready, offering modern comfort and appeal. The left-side unit will be vacant by the end of the month and is in solid condition--perfectly livable as-is, with room for cosmetic updates to boost value and rental income. With its desirable location and flexible layout, this duplex is a rare find in a sought-after lake community.

Key facts

• Paw paw lake
• Move-in ready
• Solid condition

Tags

• VERSATILE DUPLEX
• PAW PAW LAKE
• FRESHLY RENOVATED
• MOVE-IN READY
• SOLID CONDITION
• COSMETIC UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $269k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $206/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.5% in Paw Paw Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#420 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coloma Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #384 of 540 in MI (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $268,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.56%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,176
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7896 Central Ave	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,904 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$144	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-17,330
• Equity at exit: $40,094

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $18,822
• Equity at exit: $23,250

Cash invested: $75,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49038

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,410
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,034/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $268,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $597	-5% $504	+0% $411	+5% $318	+10% $226
Rent	-10% $184	-5% $298	+0% $411	+5% $525	+10% $638
Rate	-1.0pp $547	-0.5pp $480	base $411	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $271

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$2,874
Total (2 units)			$2,873

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,225
• Closing costs: $8,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Welcome to an exceptional chance to own a versatile duplex just steps away from beautiful Paw Paw Lake. Whether you're looking to expand your investment portfolio with a short-term rental, secure steady income with long-term tenants, or even live in one unit while renting the other, this property offers tremendous potential. The right-side unit has been freshly renovated and is move-in ready, offering modern comfort and appeal. The left-side unit will be vacant by the end of the month and is in solid condition--perfectly livable as-is, with room for cosmetic updates to boost value and rental income. With its desirable location and flexible layout, this duplex is a rare find in a sought-after lake community.

2. 2026-03-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Welcome to an exceptional chance to own a versatile duplex just steps away from beautiful Paw Paw Lake. Whether you're looking to expand your investment portfolio with a short-term rental, secure steady income with long-term tenants, or even live in one unit while renting the other, this property offers tremendous potential. The right-side unit has been freshly renovated and is move-in ready, offering modern comfort and appeal. The left-side unit will be vacant by the end of the month and is in solid condition--perfectly livable as-is, with room for cosmetic updates to boost value and rental income. With its desirable location and flexible layout, this duplex is a rare find in a sought-after lake community.

3. 2026-03-13
   listed $268,900 Active 716-char remark

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Welcome to an exceptional chance to own a versatile duplex just steps away from beautiful Paw Paw Lake. Whether you're looking to expand your investment portfolio with a short-term rental, secure steady income with long-term tenants, or even live in one unit while renting the other, this property offers tremendous potential. The right-side unit has been freshly renovated and is move-in ready, offering modern comfort and appeal. The left-side unit will be vacant by the end of the month and is in solid condition--perfectly livable as-is, with room for cosmetic updates to boost value and rental income. With its desirable location and flexible layout, this duplex is a rare find in a sought-after lake community.

4. 2026-03-13
   listed $268,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (716 chars)

   Welcome to an exceptional chance to own a versatile duplex just steps away from beautiful Paw Paw Lake. Whether you're looking to expand your investment portfolio with a short-term rental, secure steady income with long-term tenants, or even live in one unit while renting the other, this property offers tremendous potential. The right-side unit has been freshly renovated and is move-in ready, offering modern comfort and appeal. The left-side unit will be vacant by the end of the month and is in solid condition--perfectly livable as-is, with room for cosmetic updates to boost value and rental income. With its desirable location and flexible layout, this duplex is a rare find in a sought-after lake community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,063
• − Property taxes: −$4,034
• − Insurance: −$1,344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,758
• − Management: −$2,758
• − Depreciation: −$7,823
• Taxable income: $697
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$167
• After-tax cash flow: $4,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family property offers a solid investment opportunity with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Siding appears weathered
• Minor roof shingles — Shingles appear aged

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace roof shingles — Improves structural integrity and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Siding appears weathered	Minor	$500–3,000
roof shingles · Shingles appear aged	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace roof shingles — Improves structural integrity and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coloma Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2610380
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,135
• Composite: 24.28/100
• National rank: #7715
• State rank: #384 of 540 in MI

Livability — Paw Paw Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #11496

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paw Paw Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 8,577

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.33%
• Current HPI: 237.5873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-13 Listed $268,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-13 Listed $268,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS