23 Liam Ln · New Kingstown, PA 17015

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1983 $38/sqft · 85% above area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-maintained 2 bed, 1 bath home is located in Regency Mobile Home Park, in the Cumberland Valley School District. This great home has seen a lot of recent updates and is move-in ready! With updates including kitchen, updated flooring, lots of fresh paint throughout, and all the maintenance reflected in the pride of ownership, means you won’t have to spend all your time with a to do list! The raised ceiling in the living room gives it loads of character and charm. Don’t wait to come see this home!

Key facts

• Built 1983
• Listed 44 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.8% vs local median 2.8% in New Kingstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,606 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 144.71%
• DSCR: 7.44
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $18,897
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: 85.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Liam Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0	804 (-13%)	9mo	$6,000	$7	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.10×
• Total profit: $69,603
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.08×
• Total profit: $157,553
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $112/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $1,182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $263

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,202	-5% $1,192	+0% $1,182	+5% $1,172	+10% $1,162
Rent	-10% $1,043	-5% $1,112	+0% $1,182	+5% $1,251	+10% $1,321
Rate	-1.0pp $1,199	-0.5pp $1,191	base $1,182	+0.5pp $1,173	+1.0pp $1,164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Active 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   This well-maintained 2 bed, 1 bath home is located in Regency Mobile Home Park, in the Cumberland Valley School District. This great home has seen a lot of recent updates and is move-in ready! With updates including kitchen, updated flooring, lots of fresh paint throughout, and all the maintenance reflected in the pride of ownership, means you won’t have to spend all your time with a to do list! The raised ceiling in the living room gives it loads of character and charm. Don’t wait to come see this home!

2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   This well-maintained 2 bed, 1 bath home is located in Regency Mobile Home Park, in the Cumberland Valley School District. This great home has seen a lot of recent updates and is move-in ready! With updates including kitchen, updated flooring, lots of fresh paint throughout, and all the maintenance reflected in the pride of ownership, means you won’t have to spend all your time with a to do list! The raised ceiling in the living room gives it loads of character and charm. Don’t wait to come see this home!

3. 2026-05-06
   price $35,000 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   This well-maintained 2 bed, 1 bath home is located in Regency Mobile Home Park, in the Cumberland Valley School District. This great home has seen a lot of recent updates and is move-in ready! With updates including kitchen, updated flooring, lots of fresh paint throughout, and all the maintenance reflected in the pride of ownership, means you won’t have to spend all your time with a to do list! The raised ceiling in the living room gives it loads of character and charm. Don’t wait to come see this home!

4. 2026-04-24
   price $39,900 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   This well-maintained 2 bed, 1 bath home is located in Regency Mobile Home Park, in the Cumberland Valley School District. This great home has seen a lot of recent updates and is move-in ready! With updates including kitchen, updated flooring, lots of fresh paint throughout, and all the maintenance reflected in the pride of ownership, means you won’t have to spend all your time with a to do list! The raised ceiling in the living room gives it loads of character and charm. Don’t wait to come see this home!

5. 2026-04-06
   listed $45,000 Active 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   This well-maintained 2 bed, 1 bath home is located in Regency Mobile Home Park, in the Cumberland Valley School District. This great home has seen a lot of recent updates and is move-in ready! With updates including kitchen, updated flooring, lots of fresh paint throughout, and all the maintenance reflected in the pride of ownership, means you won’t have to spend all your time with a to do list! The raised ceiling in the living room gives it loads of character and charm. Don’t wait to come see this home!

6. 2026-04-01
   historical $45,000 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (521 chars)

   This well-maintained 2 bed, 1 bath home is located in Regency Mobile Home Park, in the Cumberland Valley School District. This great home has seen a lot of recent updates and is move-in ready! With updates including kitchen, updated flooring, lots of fresh paint throughout, and all the maintenance reflected in the pride of ownership, means you won’t have to spend all your time with a to do list! The raised ceiling in the living room gives it loads of character and charm. Don’t wait to come see this home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $112 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $332 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 197.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$112
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $14,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,471
• After-tax cash flow: $10,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Kingstown

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1606
• US rank: #21798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Coming Soon $45,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $112 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.