Plan 2527 Plan · Conroe, TX 77304

$255,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,471 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Parks * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 83 days

🏗️ New construction. The $255,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $295,739.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 746 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,944 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,739
• List price: $255,995
• Delta: -13.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3520 Sage Green Trl	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (-11%)	3mo	$334,995	$152	73
1726 Park Oak Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,428 (-2%)	5mo	$342,900	$141	73
1710 Divino Pass	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,536 (+3%)	4mo	$499,999	$197	63
6816 Hart Oak Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-8%)	4mo	$301,540	$133	60
1651 Shae Oak Ln	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-8%)	5mo	$279,890	$124	53
1623 Shae Oak Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,267 (-8%)	7mo	$376,720	$166	53
3527 Oak Lndg	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,324 (-6%)	3mo	$350,000	$151	52
1908 Velvet Oak Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-8%)	7mo	$288,140	$127	50
1642 Shae Oak Ln	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,636 (+7%)	6mo	$354,700	$135	49
1634 Shae Oak Ln	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,636 (+7%)	8mo	$379,520	$144	49
3512 Oak Lndg	0.60mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,638 (+7%)	6mo	$394,999	$150	47
3520 White Oak Point Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,181 (-12%)	3mo	$265,000	$122	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-80,000
• Equity at exit: $44,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-126,510
• Equity at exit: $25,570

Cash invested: $82,807 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 746
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,436/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,587

Max offer price $236,568

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,935
• Closing costs: $8,872
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3514 White Oak Point Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2699	$2,174	$0.81	20d	1	0.72mi
1520 Sunset Ridge Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,600	$1.00	20d	1	1.04mi
2342 Sugar Crest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	2077	$2,061	$0.99	7d	1	1.06mi
4513 Upland Circle Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2587	$1,950	$0.75	24d	1	1.09mi
295 Cypress Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	2117	$1,871	$0.88	12d	1	1.18mi
2502 N Yorkchase Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	2591	$2,500	$0.96	18d	1	1.26mi
2400 Montgomery Park Blvd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1265	$2,784	$2.20	1d	51	1.37mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,995 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,995 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,995 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,995 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,995 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,995 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,995 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,995 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,995 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,995 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,995 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,995 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $255,995 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $263,995 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Parks * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

15. 2026-04-07
    price $273,995 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Parks * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

16. 2026-03-27
    listed $283,995 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Spacious great room * Dedicated laundry room * Downstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Granite kitchen countertops * Low-E windows * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Parks * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,566
• − Property taxes: −$4,436
• − Insurance: −$1,479
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$8,603
• Taxable loss: −$10,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,454
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with recent updates, offering a move-in-ready experience.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $263,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $273,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Listed $283,995 Zillow