173 River Birch Rd · Chelsea, AL 35043

$389,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2005 0.40 ac lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $442k · 12% under $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE! 4 bedroom brick home WITH a finished basement in the heart of Chelsea?! Yes, please! This darling home features a super functional floor plan with a private primary suite, along with 2 more bedrooms and another full bathroom all on the main level. This level also features a large family room, kitchen, breakfast nook, and formal dining room! In the basement you will find the 4th bedroom, 3rd full bathroom, and a second living room - perfect for a man cave, home office, movie room, you name it! One of the best features of this home is the enormous backyard. Kick back on your screened porch and watch the kids/pets play on nearly half an acre of usable space. Less than 10 minutes from 280, where Chelsea is absolutely BOOMING! Target, Starbucks, Chick-fil-A, TJ Maxx and so much more reportedly on the way! Take advantage of the opportunity to get into Chelsea while it’s experiencing such exciting growth.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $280k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,000 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $442,009
• List price: $389,900
• Delta: -11.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3299 River Birch Trl	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,161 (-11%)	0mo	$388,000	$180	75
2016 Eaton Pl	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,285 (-6%)	10mo	$339,900	$149	72
2004 Eaton Pl	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,174 (-10%)	3mo	$339,900	$156	71
132 Magnolia Ridge Cir	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,408 (-1%)	10mo	$323,000	$134	69
205 Camellia Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,526 (+4%)	2mo	$335,002	$133	68
220 Camellia Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,390 (-1%)	2mo	$380,000	$159	66
169 Wisteria Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,640 (+9%)	2mo	$417,000	$158	65
119 Magnolia Ridge Cir	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,619 (+8%)	8mo	$359,900	$137	57
312 Honeysuckle Ln	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,238 (-8%)	6mo	$340,000	$152	56
107 Magnolia Ridge Cir	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,681 (+11%)	10mo	$369,000	$138	49
121 Weeping Willow Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,667 (+10%)	9mo	$378,000	$142	44
108 Wisteria Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,138 (-12%)	10mo	$320,000	$150	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-77,462
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-86,309
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35043

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,649/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,980

Max offer price $350,755

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 Chelsea Station Dr Chelsea, AL	4.0	4.0	2612	$2,700	$1.03	21d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $389,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $399,000 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    NEW PRICE! 4 bedroom brick home WITH a finished basement in the heart of Chelsea?! Yes, please! This darling home features a super functional floor plan with a private primary suite, along with 2 more bedrooms and another full bathroom all on the main level. This level also features a large family room, kitchen, breakfast nook, and formal dining room! In the basement you will find the 4th bedroom, 3rd full bathroom, and a second living room - perfect for a man cave, home office, movie room, you name it! One of the best features of this home is the enormous backyard. Kick back on your screened porch and watch the kids/pets play on nearly half an acre of usable space. Less than 10 minutes from 280, where Chelsea is absolutely BOOMING! Target, Starbucks, Chick-fil-A, TJ Maxx and so much more reportedly on the way! Take advantage of the opportunity to get into Chelsea while it’s experiencing such exciting growth.

17. 2026-04-25
    price $419,900 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    NEW PRICE! 4 bedroom brick home WITH a finished basement in the heart of Chelsea?! Yes, please! This darling home features a super functional floor plan with a private primary suite, along with 2 more bedrooms and another full bathroom all on the main level. This level also features a large family room, kitchen, breakfast nook, and formal dining room! In the basement you will find the 4th bedroom, 3rd full bathroom, and a second living room - perfect for a man cave, home office, movie room, you name it! One of the best features of this home is the enormous backyard. Kick back on your screened porch and watch the kids/pets play on nearly half an acre of usable space. Less than 10 minutes from 280, where Chelsea is absolutely BOOMING! Target, Starbucks, Chick-fil-A, TJ Maxx and so much more reportedly on the way! Take advantage of the opportunity to get into Chelsea while it’s experiencing such exciting growth.

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $425,000 Active 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    NEW PRICE! 4 bedroom brick home WITH a finished basement in the heart of Chelsea?! Yes, please! This darling home features a super functional floor plan with a private primary suite, along with 2 more bedrooms and another full bathroom all on the main level. This level also features a large family room, kitchen, breakfast nook, and formal dining room! In the basement you will find the 4th bedroom, 3rd full bathroom, and a second living room - perfect for a man cave, home office, movie room, you name it! One of the best features of this home is the enormous backyard. Kick back on your screened porch and watch the kids/pets play on nearly half an acre of usable space. Less than 10 minutes from 280, where Chelsea is absolutely BOOMING! Target, Starbucks, Chick-fil-A, TJ Maxx and so much more reportedly on the way! Take advantage of the opportunity to get into Chelsea while it’s experiencing such exciting growth.

19. 2026-03-26
    historical $425,000 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    NEW PRICE! 4 bedroom brick home WITH a finished basement in the heart of Chelsea?! Yes, please! This darling home features a super functional floor plan with a private primary suite, along with 2 more bedrooms and another full bathroom all on the main level. This level also features a large family room, kitchen, breakfast nook, and formal dining room! In the basement you will find the 4th bedroom, 3rd full bathroom, and a second living room - perfect for a man cave, home office, movie room, you name it! One of the best features of this home is the enormous backyard. Kick back on your screened porch and watch the kids/pets play on nearly half an acre of usable space. Less than 10 minutes from 280, where Chelsea is absolutely BOOMING! Target, Starbucks, Chick-fil-A, TJ Maxx and so much more reportedly on the way! Take advantage of the opportunity to get into Chelsea while it’s experiencing such exciting growth.

20. 2020-08-14
    soldstatus $279,900 Sold 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in the highly rated Chelsea school district! Neutrally finished throughout, the living room features a tray ceiling, gas fireplace, and updated shiplap wall that perfectly complement any decor. The functional eat-in kitchen with modern white cabinets and updated hardware offers easy access to both the formal dining room and living room to make entertaining a breeze. An additional living space on the lower level is complete with a wet bar to create an ideal man cave, game room, or guest suite with a bedroom and full bathroom! Retreat to the master suite with a private full bathroom boasting double vanities, a soaker tub, standing shower, and large walk-in closet. Nestled on a large lot with no rear neighbors you can peacefully enjoy the great outdoors from the comfort of the screened porch or out on the large paver patio. Offering tons of storage and garage space this is everything you have been searching for and so much more. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2020-06-26
    status Pending 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in the highly rated Chelsea school district! Neutrally finished throughout, the living room features a tray ceiling, gas fireplace, and updated shiplap wall that perfectly complement any decor. The functional eat-in kitchen with modern white cabinets and updated hardware offers easy access to both the formal dining room and living room to make entertaining a breeze. An additional living space on the lower level is complete with a wet bar to create an ideal man cave, game room, or guest suite with a bedroom and full bathroom! Retreat to the master suite with a private full bathroom boasting double vanities, a soaker tub, standing shower, and large walk-in closet. Nestled on a large lot with no rear neighbors you can peacefully enjoy the great outdoors from the comfort of the screened porch or out on the large paver patio. Offering tons of storage and garage space this is everything you have been searching for and so much more. Schedule your showing today!

22. 2020-06-25
    listed $279,990 Active 996-char remark

    Show marketing remark (996 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in the highly rated Chelsea school district! Neutrally finished throughout, the living room features a tray ceiling, gas fireplace, and updated shiplap wall that perfectly complement any decor. The functional eat-in kitchen with modern white cabinets and updated hardware offers easy access to both the formal dining room and living room to make entertaining a breeze. An additional living space on the lower level is complete with a wet bar to create an ideal man cave, game room, or guest suite with a bedroom and full bathroom! Retreat to the master suite with a private full bathroom boasting double vanities, a soaker tub, standing shower, and large walk-in closet. Nestled on a large lot with no rear neighbors you can peacefully enjoy the great outdoors from the comfort of the screened porch or out on the large paver patio. Offering tons of storage and garage space this is everything you have been searching for and so much more. Schedule your showing today!

23. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus $246,000
24. 2018-02-26
    soldstatus $246,000 Sold
25. 2018-01-24
    historical Contingent
26. 2018-01-04
    price $259,900
27. 2017-11-14
    listed $265,900 Active
28. 2013-08-27
    soldstatus $237,500
29. 2013-08-23
    soldstatus $237,500
30. 2013-03-01
    listed $239,900
31. 2011-01-25
    soldstatus $245,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$1,649
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$9,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,325
• After-tax cash flow: $-334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelsea, AL
• City population: 15,068
• Population (ZIP): 15,068

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Arabic 4% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.08%
• Current HPI: 205.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+62.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $399,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $419,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $425,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-26 Coming Soon $425,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-08-14 Sold (MLS) $279,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-06-26 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-06-25 Listed $279,990 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $246,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-26 Sold (MLS) $246,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-01-24 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-01-04 Price Changed $259,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-11-14 Listed $265,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $237,500 Public Records
• 2013-08-23 Sold (MLS) $237,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-03-01 Listed $239,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2011-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,649 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.