5202 Dauphin Dr · Belton, TX 76513

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2016 5,998 sqft lot Est $267k · 23% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is the word here. With a recently replaced roof, attached garage, and solid overall layout, this property offers a strong foundation for cosmetic improvements that could go a long way. Ideal for someone looking to add their own style, create equity, or pick up a property with value-add potential without taking on a full heavy rehab. Minor cosmetic work needed, but the bones and upside are there. Convenient location with quick access to Belton-area amenities.

Key facts

• Functional layout
• 5,998 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• DESIRABLE BELTON LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#462 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chisholm Trail El (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 868 students, 61% FRL); South Belton Middle (math 21% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 677 students, 65% FRL); Belton H S (math 39% / reading 46%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 1,941 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 752 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,329 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,916
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5217 Lancaster Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,508 (0%)	2mo	$276,415	$183	94
4810 Hawkins Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,508 (0%)	1mo	$283,685	$188	93
4829 Hawkins Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,508 (0%)	4mo	$259,640	$172	88
5325 Cicero Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+6%)	3mo	$258,000	$161	80
4108 Estes Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+1%)	3mo	$279,900	$185	80
4825 Shanty Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+6%)	2mo	$284,110	$177	80
4854 Hawkins Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+6%)	3mo	$266,920	$166	76
5117 Lassen Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	1mo	$301,055	$186	70
5101 Lassen Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	2mo	$297,000	$183	68
3819 Corpus Christi Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,706 (+13%)	2mo	$275,000	$161	59
6161 Lavaca Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+6%)	3mo	$232,000	$145	56
3973 Aransas Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+13%)	3mo	$270,000	$159	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-43,520
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-59,732
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76513

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 752
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$507 /mo · $6,085/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,161

Max offer price $185,329

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-53	+0% $-111	+5% $-169	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-191	+0% $-111	+5% $-32	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-59	base $-111	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5501 Shire Dr Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,245	$1.12	16d	1	0.37mi
6260 Matagorda Rd Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,050	$1.36	23d	1	0.75mi
5133 Dickinson Loop Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,900	$1.12	16d	1	0.76mi
5737 St Charles Dr Belton, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,400	$1.34	23d	1	0.82mi
3410 Auction Barn Rd Unit B Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,295	$0.81	23d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   historical
2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-08
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-04-08
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-03-28
   listed $205,000 Active
6. 2026-03-27
   price $205,000
7. 2026-03-20
   price $215,000
8. 2026-03-12
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,085 · $507/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,085 · $507/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$6,085
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,121
• After-tax cash flow: $-215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Belton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #9300

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 45,928
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,928
• Household income: $80,661
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 183.6715
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $205,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $205,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $215,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $225,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+40.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,085 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.